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In the announcement that Billy Donovan would not return to the Oklahoma City Thunder, general manager Sam Presti indicated that the two sides did not have the same desires for the immediate future of the organization.
“It became apparent that we couldn’t provide him the information on the future direction of the team over the next several seasons to give him the level of clarity that he understandably desires at this stage of his career,” Presti said in a statement.
That lack of “clarity” about the “future direction of the team” likely alludes to a rebuild.
With the salary cap expected to drop on the heels of the coronavirus pandemic and loss of revenue from China, the Thunder may look to reduce its payroll, get rid of some of its veterans and turn its focus to the young players and many, many draft picks it has over the next half-decade.
What’s Next For The Oklahoma City Thunder?
The easiest forecast is that power forward Danilo Gallinari will not be re-signed by the team.
Gallinari is one of the best players in a relatively weak free agency class, and if he commands $20 million per year on the open market, the Thunder may not be willing to bring him back. And if he gets a rich offer to join a contender like the Miami Heat — a team that tried to trade for him at the February trade deadline — he may prefer that destination.
A trade of point guard Chris Paul may also be on the horizon.
Paul’s thank-you message to the organization and fans as he was leaving the bubble certainly sounded like he saw the possibility that he would not return. Although his hefty contract could make it difficult to trade him, he has improved his perceived value after leading the Thunder to the playoffs in a season in which he was named an All-Star for the 10th time.
If Paul is moved, the Thunder aren’t likely to receive a player as talented as him, but ownership is likely willing to part with the $85 million he’s due to earn over the next two years. In return for Paul, the Thunder should, in theory, be able to get a first-round draft pick or young asset in return.
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After Gallinari and Paul, the question turns to less-expensive players on expiring contracts — Dennis Schroder and Steven Adams.
Schroder’s last two seasons have revitalized his value, and there are certainly teams that would jump at the chance to get a $15 million guard who can start at two positions or come off the bench.
Adams’ $27 million contract, however, could be more difficult to move.
The game has changed, and a “traditional” center like Adams may not be able to fetch a high return on the trade market. As evidence, consider the February trade of center Andre Drummond. Drummond, a two-time All-Star playing under a $25 million contract, is one of the best rebounders in the league. Yet as a traditional big man, he could only fetch a second-round pick and salary filler when the Detroit Pistons traded him to the Cleveland Cavaliers at the deadline.
Whether or not the Thunder keep Adams around, the big man is on an expiring contract and next season may be his last in Oklahoma City.
Turning to the Future
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will get to try his hand as the best player on the team. He looks like a player who can be a multi-time All-Star, and in his third year, he’ll be able to be the primary ball handler instead of one of three.
Darius Bazley looks like a player who can develop into a versatile power forward who can slide down to small forward or, in certain lineups, up to center.
Lu Dort — who signed four-year, $5.4 million deal with the club before the playoffs — made a name for himself with his stellar defense against James Harden in the postseason. He has one of the most team-friendly deals in the league.
The Thunder can also spend next year analyzing Hamidou Diallo and Terrance Ferguson, both of whom are just 22 years old and will be in the final year of their contracts.
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If those five are the main pieces of the immediate future, along with whoever Oklahoma City takes with the No. 25 pick, that gives the Thunder some intriguing players to develop until they can begin using the draft picks acquired from the Russell Westbrook and Paul George trades.
Additionally, if the Thunder do go through a rebuild, their own picks will be better. They owe their 2022 first-round selection to the Atlanta Hawks, but it’s top-14 protected. If they do not make the playoffs in 2021-22, they keep the first-rounder and instead trade a pair of second-rounders.
And that may be the crux of the situation: If the Thunder move on from Paul, and move on from Gallinari, and move on from Schroder and Adams just like they moved on from Billy Donovan, they will be the only team in the Western Conference that is not trying to make the playoffs.
Look at the standings: Every other Western Conference team can feasibly see a path to the postseason.
The last-place Golden State Warriors will be back in the mix of it with a healthy roster. The Minnesota Timberwolves have Karl Anthony-Towns, D’Angelo Russell and the No. 1 pick. The five non-playoff bubble teams would like to play meaningful games again soon.
That leaves the Thunder.
What’s next for Oklahoma City may not be pretty. They may be the worst team in the conference. But that gives them the opportunity to draft a very good player or two before they even dip into the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Clippers stash.
For optimists, an ugly couple of years can lead to a better future.
At least, that’s got to be what Presti is hoping.
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