Predicting what a team might do with the 30th overall pick in the draft before actually knowing the first 29 picks is a near-impossible task. Big boards and mock draft help narrow down who might be available and who might not, but it’s still a guessing game with few certainties and a ton of variables to consider.
Players can go earlier than expected. Others could fall. Teams could make trades. The Green Bay Packers look primed to move up or down the board.
We’re still going to attempt to predict what GM Brian Gutekunst will do late in the first round on Thursday night.
A couple things to consider:
– Justin Jefferson or one of the top offensive tackles lasting until No. 30 overall is probably a pipe dream.
– There’s a decent chance a wide receiver will be the best player on the board at a position the Packers value.
– The Packers have a massive need for a playmaking weapon in the passing game behind Davante Adams.
The prediction: The Packers will take Arizona State receiver Brandon Aiyuk with their first pick, whether it’s at No. 30 overall or further down the board.
Most years, a player of Aiyuk’s caliber probably wouldn’t make it out of the first round. This year, the wide receiver class is loaded, and not every team is going to pounce on a pass-catcher in the first round.
The guess here is that Jefferson and Denzel Mims will be gone. They’ll be too tempting for teams picking in the 20s. There’s even a chance Jalen Reagor and his explosive skillset will be off the board by 30.
Even if they’re gone, Aiyuk would be a terrific consolation prize. He’s a dynamic football player, with explosive quickness, easy change of direction ability, freakishly long arms, positional versatility and game-changing run after the catch talent. He’s a terrific fit in Green Bay, given his vertical speed, slot skills and manufactured touch potential.
A scout that spoke with Bob McGinn of The Athletic recently compared Aiyuk to former Packers receiver Greg Jennings. Comps can be overdone, but this one resonated with me. Aiyuk and Jennings share so many traits coming out of college. Both have the ability to explode out of cuts and glide around defenders in the open field. They play bigger than their listed size. They can win down the field and turn a short throw into a long touchdown.
Jennings made an early impact as a No. 2 receiver behind Donald Driver and later become a go-to target for both Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Aiyuk needs refinement as he enters the pro game and but he’s ready physically to contribute in valuable ways to the Packers offense.
A passing game with Adams, Aiyuk and tight end Jace Sternberger moving around the formation and big targets like Allen Lazard, Devin Funchess and Marquez Valdes-Scantling handling specific roles could really work, especially if Aiyuk proves capable of generating quick chunks of offense in a variety of easy ways. Get him the ball on quick screens, slants, jet sweeps and touch passes and some consistency might finally emerge in the second year of Matt LaFleur’s offense.
There’s even a chance, based on how the board falls, that the Packers could move back a couple of spots – generating a mid-round pick later in the draft – and still get Aiyuk early on Day 2. In 2008, the Packers moved back and still grabbed Jordy Nelson. The maneuver can be done.
Regardless of when it happens, Packers Wire believes Aiyuk will be the first pick made by Gutekunst and the Packers during the 2020 NFL draft.
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