LSU is 6-2 with four games to go. After losing to Texas A&M, LSU is entering its annual bye before the showdown with Alabama.
That meeting with the Crimson Tide, as it often does, will determine the direction of LSU’s season. A win and the Tigers are right back in the playoff race. A loss means elimination.
LSU will get the benefit of Tiger Stadium — something the Tigers missed when dealing with 12th man in College Station. [autotag]Brian Kelly[/autotag] will hope that leads to a reduction in the procedural issues that hurt LSU against Arkansas and Texas A&M.
After the Bama game, LSU will travel to Florida before home meetings with Vanderbilt and Oklahoma to close the year.
According to ESPN FPI, LSU’s remaining strength of schedule ranks 19th. That’s a bit easier than what LSU’s faced so far.
LSU will look to capitalize on three home games to bolt back into the playoff race. Today, we’ll take a shot at projecting the scores of LSU’s last four games.
Alabama at LSU
This is the big one — it always is. The winner of this meeting often finds itself in Atlanta for the SEC title. We don’t have divisisions anymore, but Bama-LSU winner represented the SEC West in 11 of the last 13 SEC title.
Most of that representation was Alabama, with LSU winning just two of those meetings.
I expect the spread on this game to be close to a toss-up. It’s possible LSU is a slight favorite with the game being in Baton Rouge.
Watching LSU’s attempt to defend A&M QB Marcel Reed doesn’t lead to much faith in LSU’s ability to stop Jalen Milroe.
Milroe carried it 20 times for 155 yards against LSU last year. He’ll look to take advantage of that again this year.
My opinion could change next week, but right now, I don’t think LSU has the talent on defense to win this one.
Prediction: Alabama 33, LSU 27
LSU at Florida
If LSU drops the Alabama game, getting the Tigers up for this one could be a challenge. LSU will know its playoff hopes are dashed and have to find something else to play for.
That wasn’t an issue for Kelly and the coaching staff last year, though. Alabama handed LSU its third loss in 2023 and LSU won out.
Florida’s outlook was dark early in the year, but the emergence of freshman QB DJ Lagway inspired some hope. LSU will be facing a coaching staff at Florida trying to prove it deserves another year. A win vs. LSU would buy Billy Napier and crew some goodwill.
But I think LSU has the talent to go on the road and win here. LSU’s aggressive defense will speed up Lagway and the Gators’ defense will struggle to contain Nussmeier.
Prediction: LSU 31, Florida 17
Vanderbilt at LSU
Vanderbilt took college football by storm when star QB Diego Pavia led the Commodores to a win over Alabama.
According to Sports Reference’s SRS ratings, this is the strongest Vandy team since James Franklin’s group in 2012.
Pavia and Vandy pose the same challenges Reed and A&M did. The Dores run a spread option attack that’s tough to prepare for. LSU will have to play disciplined football on defense or Pavia will string drives together.
On offense, LSU should be able to have its way. Vanderbilt’s defense is one of the worst in the SEC and Nussmeier should feel comfortable with more experience and playing in front of the home crowd.
Prediction: LSU 38, Vanderbilt 24
Oklahoma at LSU
In the projections here, we had LSU losing to Bama. But there’s a world where LSU wins three straight leading into the regular season finale. In that case, LSU is likely fighting for a playoff spot here.
Oklahoma’s offense is near dysfunctional and I think LSU has the matchup advantage on defense. The Tiger front should be able to take advantage of a weak Sooner offensive line.
But when LSU has the ball, the OU defense is salty enough to create issues. Brent Venables leads an aggressive defense that creates havoc and the Sooners have the athletes to play with LSU. It will be tough, but LSU creates a couple of big plays to win a low-scoring game.
Prediction: LSU 23, Oklahoma 16
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