So much of the conversation and discourse around college football is about statistical performance, and the rise of analytics and new ways of thinking about the sport has only heightened that. With that in mind, stats are not everything. They are the end product of how a player performs, but the surface-level stats often lack the context of why the player performed (or sometimes failed to perform) overall.
For example, Penn State quarterback [autotag]Drew Allar[/autotag]’s stats last season don’t look bad on the surface. The passing yardage (2,631) was disappointing, but he took great care of the football with 25 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Digging a bit deeper paints a different picture, however, as he completed just 59.9% of his passes and failed to consistently hit open receivers on film.
Undoubtedly, he has the talent required to make good on his five-star pedigree, but he failed to deliver in the biggest games during his first full season as the starter. New offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki should be able to better unlock Allar’s natural talent, and he has a strong core of talent around him as he enters his junior season.
Penn State brought in new OC Andy Kotelnicki this offseason to help create more explosive 💥 plays and there's plenty of talent in place for that to happen.
𝙌𝘽 𝘿𝙧𝙚𝙬 𝘼𝙡𝙡𝙖𝙧- If @seniorbowl were to assign an "arrow up" designation to a QB in this class, it would be… pic.twitter.com/uEsspg2AJR
— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) August 15, 2024
Predicting any player’s stats is difficult, even more so with a whole new offense being implemented, but it’s worth the effort as a way to visualize how Penn State’s season could turn out. I believe Allar will see a sizable jump in his passing yards thanks to a focus on creating big plays, and his touchdown numbers should make a small leap to go along with it.
Kotelnicki was great at weaponizing his quarterback’s athleticism while at Kansas, so I expect to see Allar’s rushing output increase as well. He won’t be Jalen Milroe out there, but he should help out the run game more in 2024.
I do expect to see more interceptions from him this season, but the trade-off for more explosive plays will be worth it. Overall, I believe Allar will make significant strides as a player under Kotelnicki in 2024. They will need him to if they want to compete for a Big Ten title and a berth in the College Football Playoffs.
Final Stats Prediction: 3,200 yards passing, 30 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 400 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns