The 2021 season is a monumental one for coach Dan Mullen. He’s been an unquestioned success through his first three seasons, earning a raise that makes him one of the nation’s five highest-paid coaches this offseason.
But Florida loses a lot this season. Though the final 8-4 record didn’t show it, the 2020 team was the best Mullen’s had so far and the one that came the closest to cracking the College Football Playoff field. Now, the Gators have to replace their starting quarterback, top-three receiving targets and several starters on defense.
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Given Mullen’s track record at developing the quarterback position, it stands to reason that Emory Jones will continue the productive play on offense as Trask’s replacement, though the offense will certainly look different with him running it.
Still, there’s many who expect Florida to take a step back in 2021, and though 247Sports’ Brad Crawford predicted that UF would actually improve its record to 9-3 in 2021, that likely wouldn’t be enough to repeat as SEC East champions.
Final record prediction: 9-3, 5-3
The skinny: Will Florida take a step back after winning the SEC East like everyone seems to think this season? It’s possible given the talent losses offensively with Kyle Trask, Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney all leaving for the NFL. But this is Dan Mullen we’re talking about, a respected coach who gets the most out of what he has to work with and has a penchant for putting his players in best position to succeed. Offense isn’t the worry here — it’s the other side of the football. The early home game vs. juggernaut Alabama is huge as well as the annual rivalry with Georgia. That game during the second half of the season could decide the division again.
Though the schedule is not too difficult all-in-all, with non-conference games coming against Florida Atlantic, South Florida, Samford and Florida State, it features a number of games the team will have circled.
First up is the SEC opener against Alabama on Sep. 18, and though the Crimson Tide come to Gainesville and arguably have more to replace than UF does, knocking off Nick Saban’s team that early in the season seems like a tough ask.
The Gators also travel to Death Valley on Oct. 16 to take on LSU in a revenge game, but this time, the Tigers will have home-field advantage and should be improved from last year. That game, and a bout with Georgia in Jacksonville two weeks later that should decide the SEC East, will be crucial in determining if UF is competitive for the CFP.
Even if Florida drops the conference opener to Alabama, it could still win the division and get its revenge in the SEC Championship. But it seems Crawford expects the Gators to also lose to Georgia and LSU, which would almost certainly cost them a chance at a division title.
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