The Jacksonville Jaguars impressively started the 2020 season dispatching division rival and eventual playoff team Indianapolis for a 27-20 win at TIAA Bank Field. Jacksonville didn’t have much to celebrate the rest of the way, as it lost the next 15 games to complete the worst season in franchise history.
The Jags went just 1-5 against their divisional opponents last season, and that’s a mark that simply can’t be replicated in 2021. Though the Jaguars aren’t expected to compete for a playoff spot in the first season under coach Urban Meyer, they are expected to improve significantly.
They also aren’t projected to finish last in the AFC South again. Houston has a depleted roster and an uncertain situation, to say the least, around quarterback Deshaun Watson, who formally requested a trade this offseason and is now facing a lawsuit from 22 women alleging sexual assault against him. As a result, the Texans are widely projected to be not just the worst team in the AFC South, but all of football.
Unfortunately for Jacksonville, while Houston may be beatable in 2021, its other two divisional opponents won’t go down so easily. Both the Colts and the Tennessee Titans are expected to compete for a playoff spot, with both teams securing a spot last postseason.
The Titans are the favorite in the division, returning much of the same core from last year plus Julio Jones, who they acquired in a trade with the Falcons. Meanwhile, the Colts have to replace the retiring Philip Rivers with Carson Wentz. He’ll hope for a career resurgence in Indy, and though the Colts may take a step back, they still have a much more complete roster than the Jags.
With this situation in mind, what is a realistic expectation for Jacksonville within the division? At the very least, the team should finish third, assuming Watson doesn’t suit up for the Texans this season. But how many games will the Jags win in the AFC South?
Well, the team is predicted by most to finish around the five or six-win mark. Considering both matchups against the Texans (especially the season opener, which could feature two rookie starters at quarterback) will be some of Jacksonville’s most winnable games, it seems fair to assume the team can win at least two games in the division.
But even if the Jags sweep the Texans, dropping both games to Indianapolis and Tennessee would be a bit disappointing. For that reason, 2.5 wins seems like a solid place to set the over/under. Reaching three wins would mean the Jaguars have to beat either the Colts or Titans at least once, which is doable if a bit unlikely. At the same time, two wins seems like a good baseline considering the AFC South is far from football’s toughest division.
What do you think, Jaguars fans? Would you take the over on 2.5 division wins? Or will Jacksonville once again struggle to take down its biggest rivals? Let us know in the poll below.
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