The Cincinnati Bengals welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers to Paycor Stadium Sunday. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Steelers vs. Bengals odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Bengals are coming off their 1st Super Bowl appearance since 1988 and they’ll look to avoid a hangover similar to that of their opponent — the Los Angeles Rams, who were blown out 31-10 Thursday by the Buffalo Bills.
The Bengals are led by star QB Joe Burrow and standout WR Ja’Marr Chase. They added 3 starting offensive linemen in free agency and have retained the key parts of their defense as well.
The Steelers, on the other hand, saw their long-time QB Ben Roethlisberger retire. He’ll, at least for now, be replaced by QB Mitchell Trubisky and not 1st-round pick QB Kenny Pickett.
Pittsburgh’s offense will be led by RB Najee Harris while the defense is led by DE T.J. Watt, one of the best pass-rushers in the NFL. Pittsburgh is projected to finish last in the AFC North.
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Steelers at Bengals odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:36 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Steelers +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Bengals -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Steelers +6.5 (-103) | Bengals -6.5 (-117)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Steelers at Bengals key injuries
Steelers
- None
Bengals
- WR/PR Trent Taylor (hamstring) questionable
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Steelers at Bengals picks and predictions
Prediction
Bengals 24, Steelers 20
Money line
PASS.
The Steelers don’t have the talent to keep pace and were destroyed on the road in this environment last season.
It could be worth a small play to back Mike Tomlin if you’re high on the Watt-led defense, but ultimately, I’d look toward the spread to back Pittsburgh.
Against the spread
BET PITTSBURGH +6.5 (-110).
In 16 years, Tomlin has not had a losing season as a head coach. While that may not matter much here, it goes to show that he’s an elite coach, and elite coaches know how to keep games close.
The Bengals won 41-10 at home last season against Pittsburgh, but with it being 31-3 at half, Harris received just 8 carries and Roethlisberger had 2 picks. Pittsburgh should have more success in the pass game with Trubisky.
Also, the Bengals started off slow last season, losing in their home opener to the Minnesota Vikings. With Burrow and Tee Higgins not playing the preseason, a slow start seems almost inevitable.
The Steelers had a league-high 55 sacks last season, and while the Bengals did add 3 new linemen, they haven’t played together in an NFL game yet and didn’t get reps in the preseason.
With a rookie also starting on the line, there could be some possession-changing false starts or missed blocks. Given the strength of the Steelers defense, I like them to keep it within a touchdown.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 44.5 (-108).
That last sentence is why I favor the under in this matchup as well. The Steelers should want to take away the Bengals receivers and drop into zone with multiple safeties.
It could open up RB Joe Mixon and a rush attack that had 198 yards at home last season against the Steelers. If that’s the case, expect the clock to tick down in a hurry as Harris will get the bulk of the load for the Steelers.
The Bengals have an underrated defense that was the real difference-maker in their Super Bowl run. S Jessie Bates hasn’t missed a beat since his hold out, and they’ll add several new faces to the defensive line.
Pittsburgh was 7-10-1 while Cincinnati was 8-13 (playoff included) O/U last season, so both sides were better at cover the Under. Considering the style of the Steelers and likely pace of the game, I like the Under here.
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More NFL Week 1 coverage
- Experts: ML, ATS and OU predictions
- Best picks: Underdogs | 5 player props | Survivor
- Bet Slippin’ podcast with guest Minty Bets of Yahoo! Sports
- Updated fantasy football rankings (PPR scoring)
- Super Bowl LVII odds
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