The Pittsburgh Pirates (5-8) clash with the NL Central rival Milwaukee Brewers (7-5) Friday to start a three-game series at American Family Field in Milwaukee. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Pittsburgh just split a four-game series with the San Diego Padres following a 2-1 series win over the Chicago Cubs last weekend.
Milwaukee won four of its past five games, which includes a 2-1 series win against the Cubs earlier this week following a 2-1 series win over the St. Louis Cardinals.
RHP JT Brubaker is on the hill tonight for the Pirates. Brubaker is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9 in 2 starts this season.
- Last outing: Win with 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 4 K’s in Pittsburgh’s 7-1 win against the Cubs Sunday.
- Career vs. Brewers: 0-0 with a 4.00 ERA (9 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 12 K’s) in 2 starts.
RHP Adrian Houser is the Brewers projected starter. Houser is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 in 2 starts this year.
- Last outing: Win with 5 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 3 K’s Sunday in Milwaukee’s 9-5 victory at the Cardinals.
- Career vs. Pirates: 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA (21 IP, 14 ER, 24 H, 13 BB, 17 K’s) in 3 starts and 3 relief appearances.
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Pirates at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Brewers -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (-155) | Brewers -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Pirates 6, Brewers 4
Money line (ML)
Pittsburgh was 1-1 in Brubaker’s two no-decisions last season vs. Milwaukee but in the loss, Brubaker turned the game over to the Pirates’ bullpen with a lead and the Brewers scored 5 runs in the last three innings to win.
So far this season, Milwaukee’s bullpen isn’t nearly as reliable as last year; Brewers’ relievers are 24th by ERA and WHIP this season whereas last year they were 11th in ERA and fifth in WHIP.
Furthermore, according to Pregame.com, nearly three-fourths of the bets placed are with the Brewers but bookmakers have made Milwaukee’s price cheaper, which suggests they want more Milwaukee money.
We are getting the worst of the number, but let’s “fade the market” and BET PIRATES (+125) for .75 units.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Pirates +1.5 (-155) is too expensive and I am not confident enough in Pittsburgh to take the alternate spread.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8 (-105) for a quarter-unit because the market is one-sided to the Under, Milwaukee is 6-0-1 O/U in Houser’s last seven starts as a favorite and the Over is 4-1-1 in the past six Pirates-Brewers meetings.
Again, Milwaukee’s bullpen isn’t as locked in so far this year and Statcast grades Houser in the 30th percentile or lower in chase rate, hard-hit% and xwOBA.
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