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The Pittsburgh Penguins (36-30-11) visit the Toronto Maple Leafs (44-23-9) Monday at Scotiabank Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Penguins vs. Maple Leafs odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Penguins were sellers at the NHL trade deadline, but they have picked up points in 8 consecutive games, posting a 6-0-2 record since March 24, including 4 straight victories. Pittsburgh has scored 3 or more goals in each of those 8 games, averaging 4.3 goals per game (GPG). The Over has cashed in 4 of the past 5 outings.
The Maple Leafs doubled up the Montreal Canadiens 4-2 on the road Saturday. Toronto has won 4 of the past 5 outings, scoring a total of 19 goals in the span, averaging 3.8 GPG in the 5-game span. The Under is on a 3-1 run in the past 4 contests.
Toronto picked up a 7-0 win at home against Pittsburgh in the most recent meeting Dec. 16, hitting the Over. It was a rare Over result in this series, as the Under is still 5-2 in the past 7 meetings.
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Penguins at Maple Leafs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Penguins +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Maple Leafs -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Penguins +1.5 (-185) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Penguins at Maple Leafs projected goalies
Alex Nedeljkovic (16-6-6, 2.82 GAA, .907 SV%, 1 SO) vs. Ilya Samsonov (22-6-7, 3.03 GAA, .893 SV%, 3 SO)
Nedeljkovic has made the past 8 starts for the Penguins, winning 6 times, with a pair of OTLs. He has allowed 3 or fewer goals in 6 of the past 7 meetings. The Ohio native has managed an impressive 4-0-0 record, 2.50 GAA and .917 SV% in 4 starts in April.
Nedeljkovic didn’t start in the Dec. 16 meeting in Toronto, but he appeared in relief, allowing 3 goals on 21 shots in the 7-0 loss to the Leafs.
Samsonov allowed 2 goals on 26 shots in a 4-2 win in Montreal Saturday. He has won 4 straight starts, although he has allowed 3 or more goals in 4 of his previous 6 outings.
Samsonov hasn’t faced the Penguins in 2 seasons with the Leafs. He went 2-1-0 with a 2.74 GAA and .927 SV% in 3 starts against Pittsburgh as a member of the Washington Capitals in the 2021-22 season.
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Penguins at Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Prediction
Maple Leafs 4, Penguins 2
Moneyline
The MAPLE LEAFS (-155) are a solid play as moderate favorites against the red-hot Penguins (+130).
Toronto clinched a playoff spot over the weekend, but this is a team with a lot to play for still. It is 5 points back of the Florida Panthers for 2nd place in the Atlantic Division and has 2 games in hand. It is also just 4 points clear of the Tampa Bay Lightning, so don’t expect the Leafs to take their foot off the gas despite clinching.
Puck line/Against the spread
The MAPLE LEAFS -1.5 (+150) are worth a look on the puck line, betting at least a half-unit.
In the past 3 games as a favorite, Toronto has cashed on the puck line, too, so if you like the Leafs, take them on the puck line. The Leafs are 4-1-0 in the past 5 games, and each of the 4 victories have been by 2 or more goals, with an average margin of victory of 2.8 GPG.
Over/Under
UNDER 6.5 (-115) is worth a look, but go lightly.
The total has gone low in 3 of the past 4 games for the Maple Leafs. Be careful, though, as the Penguins have cashed the Over in 4 of the past 5 games. Still, they have allowed just 17 goals on the past 7 outings.
And again, in this series, the Under has cashed in 5 of the past 7 outings, and the losing team has managed a total of just 11 goals in the past 10 meetings, or just 1.1 GPG.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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