The Pittsburgh Panthers (4-3, 1-2 ACC) face the North Carolina Tar Heels (6-1, 3-0) in an ACC Coastal clash on Saturday night. Kickoff at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill is 8 p.m. ET (ACC Network). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Pittsburgh has had an uneven season that has thus far been highlighted by a great performance against current-No. 3 Tennessee (34-27 loss Sept. 10) and low-lighted by recent setbacks against Georgia Tech (26-21 on Oct. 1) and Louisville (24-10 on Oct. 22). The Panthers were a 1-point underdog in last week’s game at UL but were undone by a minus-3 in turnovers, and a 10-7 lead fell apart in the 4th quarter.
The Tar Heels have won back-to-back games by a 1-score margin and have won 4 such games this season. They defeated Duke 38-35 on Oct. 15 leading into a bye week. UNC is averaging 506.0 total yards per game, which ranks 1st in the ACC and 8th in the country.
North Carolina is No. 21 in the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
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Pittsburgh at North Carolina odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 5:04 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | North Carolina -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Pittsburgh +3.5 (-125) | North Carolina -3.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 65.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Pittsburgh at North Carolina picks and predictions
Prediction
North Carolina 35, Pittsburgh 34
Moneyline
In its last 2 games, North Carolina lost one statistical match-up (vs. Miami) and tied the other (vs. Duke), but the Tar Heels managed a pair of 1-score victories.
Pitt is a lean in this game, but the Panthers are worth more of a look against the number. PASS.
Against the spread
The Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up loss.
The UNC pass offense (326.7 YPG, 9th FBS) figures as the best sector of this contest. But the Pitt defense and running game are not too far behind. Both play into the Panthers being a leverage play Saturday night.
The Pitt defense — especially the backfield — is adept at causing havoc. The Panthers are a middle-of-the-pack team in interceptions, but they rank 3rd in the nation in pass break-ups and 17th in sacks. They are, perhaps, turnover-due in hanging around at their minus-2 margin through 7 games. Pittsburgh is decent in defending the red zone; that will be key against a UNC offense that thrives in closing out drives with 6.
The North Carolina defense struggles in its own end of the field. They have allowed too much 1st- and 2nd-down success this season, and that has led to the Tar Heels allowing 476.3 YPG (125th).
TAKE PITTSBURGH +3.5 (-125).
Over/Under
Good weather, UNC’s expected success and issues on both sides of the ball, a close game late, and a balanced Pitt offense, mix with a short field or 2 and make for solid leverage on the OVER 65.5 (-110).
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