The 7-seed Los Angeles Lakers (2-1) hope to push the Phoenix Suns (1-2) to the brink of elimination in Game 4 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series Sunday. Tip-off at Staples Center is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Suns-Lakers odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
L.A. hopped into the driver’s seat of this series by clubbing Phoenix 109-95 in Game 3 and covering as a 6.5-point home favorite.
Following a disappointing Game 1, PF Anthony Davis continued to rip apart Phoenix’s interior defense with a second straight 34-point performance Thursday on 50% shooting and getting to the foul line 14 times.
PG Chris Paul continues to be compromised with a shoulder injury, scoring just 7 points on 3-for-8 shooting with a game-low minus-20 in +/- for Game 3.
Suns at Lakers: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Suns +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Lakers -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Suns +6.5 (-110) | Lakers -6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 209.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Suns at Lakers: Key injuries
Suns
- PG Chris Paul (shoulder) questionable
Lakers
- PF Anthony Davis (knee) probable
- SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (knee) questionable
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Suns at Lakers: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Lakers 108, Suns 97
Money line (ML)
PASS because as far as I’m concerned, this series is over, but the Lakers (-275) are still too pricey given CP3 could grind out one more vintage performance at some point in this series and Suns SG Devin Booker can erupt in any game.
However, the time to bet Phoenix’s money line was Game 1 when SF LeBron James did his standard playoff “feel-out” game where he assessed what his opponents were running before making adjustments.
During L.A.’s title run last season in the bubble, the Lakers dropped Game 1 of their opening-round series to the Portland Trail Blazers before winning the next four games.
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Against the spread (ATS)
BET the LAKERS -6.5 (-110) because L.A.’s defense is shutting Phoenix down and the Suns don’t have enough size to compete with the Lakers.
Phoenix has the highest turnover rate in the playoffs, L.A. has the fourth-best defensive rating and scores the second-most points off of turnovers per game in the postseason.
Furthermore, the Suns not having a legit second scorer makes it pretty easy for a Lakers defense that ranked first in defensive rating during the regular season to load up against Booker.
Also, Phoenix C Deandre Ayton is having a fantastic series thus far—averaging 21.7 points per game on 82.1% shooting with 12.3 rebounds per game—but outside of him, the Suns don’t have another quality big.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 209.5 (-110) for a half unit because we are getting early “reverse-line movement,” both teams play at a below-average pace and, even though L.A.’s defense was featured in my analysis above, the Lakers have a sub-50% effective field-goal percentage in this series.
According to Pregame.com, the early market report shows that more money and bets have been placed on the Over, but the total has been steamed down from the 210.5-point opener. It’s always a red flag when bookmakers start to make the popular side cheaper.
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