The Phoenix Suns are in the Mile High City to play the Denver Nuggets in Game 3 of their Western Conference Semifinals playoff series Friday. Tip-off at Ball Arena is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Suns-Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
This series has been as one-sided as it gets with Denver being outscored in six straight quarters since leading by a point at halftime of Game 1.
Phoenix won each game by double-digits and is putting up 122.5 points per game. The Over cashed in Game 1 while the Under hit in Game 2 as Denver scored only 98 points.
Suns “Point God” Chris Paul is putting on a clinic this series. He’s averaging 19.0 points per game on 71.3% true shooting (.583/.800/1.000), 5.5 rebounds and 13.0 assists per game with just one turnover in the series.
Nuggets MVP Nikola Jokic has been a smidge less productive in this series, averaging 23.0 PPG on just 47.5% field-goal shooting with 4.5 assists per game.
Suns at Nuggets: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Suns +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Nuggets -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Suns +1.5 (-110) | Nuggets -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 222.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Suns at Nuggets: Key injuries
Suns
- Nothing affecting the betting odds.
Nuggets
- SF Michael Porter Jr. (back) probable
- SG PJ Dozier (groin) out
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Suns at Nuggets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Nuggets 114, Suns 105
Money line (ML)
Nearly 70% of the action is on the Suns (+100), according to Pregame.com, but the line movement is heading in the opposite direction and it’s a red flag whenever the House makes the more popular side cheaper.
The Nuggets’ role players cannot play worse on their home floor and Denver almost has to be more aggressive since it has only a .093 FT/FGA rate in this series (the playoff median is .206 FT/FGA).
Also, the Suns have been red-hot since Game 5 of their first-round playoff series with the Los Angeles Lakers but three of those four games were in Phoenix and typically role players regress on the road.
Likewise, role players play better at home, and Nuggets guards Will Barton, Monte Morris and Austin Rivers have an opportunity to step up and make this a series.
“LEAN” to the NUGGETS (-120) for a half unit.
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Against the spread (ATS)
PASS unless Denver’s money line drops below -135 then I’d lay the points with the Nuggets.
Since Denver’s money line is only 10 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Nuggets -1.5 (-110), just stick with Denver winning straight up.
Over/Under (O/U)
TAKE the UNDER 222.5 (-105) for 1 unit as the best bet in Nuggets-Suns Game 3. Denver is known as the Mile High City and one of the Nuggets’ major homecourt advantages is that they play at altitude.
Since both teams played at a bottom-5 pace in the regular season—Phoenix was ranked 26th and Denver 27th—and the Nuggets don’t have the guard play to get into an up-and-down game with the Suns, you could argue it’s in both teams’ best interest to slow the tempo.
CP3 and the Suns are executing brilliant half-court offense and I’m sure they’re fine with slowing it down on the road.
Furthermore, nearly 80% of the action is on the Over and a majority of the situational trends suggest a high-scoring affair. So, a contrarian play is another angle for the UNDER 222.5 (-105).
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