The No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (1-2) host the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-1) for Game 4 of their Western Conference semifinals playoff series. Sunday’s tip-off at the American Airlines Center is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Suns vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Dallas got back into this series with a 103-94 win Friday in Game 3, despite being outperformed in 3 of the “4 factors”. Phoenix continuously shot itself in the foot and Dallas attempted 14 more field goals in the game.
The Suns had a 17.1% offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and allowed 22 second-chance points in Game 3, well off their regular-season marks of 12.9% offensive TOV% (4th) and 14.8 second-chance points per game allowed (4th).
Dallas combo guard Jalen Brunson had a bounce-back effort at home, scoring 28 points on 47.6% shooting (7 of 7 from the foul line) with 4 rebounds, 5 assists and no turnovers.
The Mavs’ Game 3 victory was their first vs. Phoenix since the Suns acquired future Hall-of-Fame PG Chris Paul prior to last season. Dallas is 1-8 straight up (SU) and 3-5 against the spread (ATS) vs. Phoenix in the last 2 seasons.
Mavericks at Suns odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:28 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Suns -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Mavericks +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread: Suns -2.5 (-110) | Mavericks +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 214.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mavericks at Suns key injuries
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Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions
Prediction
Suns 109, Mavericks 103
Money line
BET the SUNS (-140) because they won’t repeat the mistakes that cost them Game 3. Phoenix outshot Dallas from everywhere on the floor and had a plus-9 rebound differential, but just kept giving the ball back to the Mavs.
Also, the Suns perform much better than the Mavs in close games. Phoenix is 6-2 SU in games decided by 3 points or less and 5-1 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point favorites. Dallas is 7-5 SU in games within a 3-point margin and 7-5 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point underdogs.
Phoenix had the best regular-season clutch record (33-9 SU) and net rating (plus-33.9) whereas Dallas was 25th in clutch net rating this season (minus-9.1). “Clutch” is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of 5 minutes to play.
Suns coach Monty Williams should make the necessary adjustments and Phoenix’s All-Star backcourt of CP3 and Devin Booker will perform better Sunday after no-shows Friday.
BET the SUNS (-140).
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Against the spread
Slight LEAN to the SUNS -2.5 (-110) because they should win Game 4 by margin, but I’m confident enough to spend a little extra for Phoenix’s ML.
Also, we’d be getting the worst of the number since the Suns opened as 1.5-point favorites but market steam has made Phoenix more expensive.
Over/Under
LEAN to the UNDER 214.5 (-110) since there’s a line freeze in the betting market for the total, Dallas is 3-9 O/U as home underdogs with a minus-7.1 total margin and played at the slowest pace during the regular season.
According to VegasInsider.com, nearly three-fourths of the cash wagered is on the Over, but the total hasn’t budged off the opener and has even been lowered at some sportsbooks.
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