Philip Rivers is the best QB to hit free agency in nearly a decade, but what does he have left?

Accomplished quarterbacks like Philip Rivers don’t make it to NFL free agency very often. But can he still play?

Drew Brees has already announced he’s going back to New Orleans. Despite all the fuss about Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, there’s very little chance that Jerry Jones will let his young franchise quarterback hit the open market. And Tom Brady, well, who knows what’s going on with him. Is he staying in New England? If not, his list of preferred destinations can’t be too long.

So among the well-established quarterbacks who were set make this a wild free agency period, the only one that is freely available is Philip Rivers. Maybe that’s a letdown for some, but I feel like we’re not making a big enough deal about this. I mean, how often does a quarterback as good as Rivers has been throughout his career make it to the open market?

Sure, Rivers is old and coming off a season in which he threw 20 interceptions but, even at this point in his career, he remains a franchise-changing player who could end up swinging a division race and upsetting the power balance in a conference.

On the heels of the 2019 season, there are two major concerns with Rivers: His declining arm strength and increasing interception total. But every quarterback has weaknesses — well, besides the one in Kansas City — and I don’t think Rivers’ are as bad as we make them out to be.

Rivers threw a lot of interceptions but all interceptions are not created equal

Only Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield threw more interceptions than Rivers did in 2019. Throwing 20 interceptions in a given season is never a good thing, but as you add layers of context to that big number, it doesn’t look so bad.

Before we dig into those numbers, here’s a bit of anecdotal context. It’s an emotional Rivers reflecting on his career with the Chargers, and I believe this particular bit is important when examining Rivers’ turnovers.

“I can say that I gave it everything that I have. I mean every week. And maybe it means an interception on 4th-and-18 when you’re down 10. Because I don’t care that it’s going to say ‘two interceptions.’ I really don’t. I ain’t quitting.”

It’s refreshing to hear. There are quarterbacks out there who go out of their way to protect their numbers late in un-winnable games. (*cough* Derek Carr *cough*). Not Rivers, who threw a league-leading nine interceptions when his team had a win percentage under 15%, according to nflscrapR play-by-play data. The average win percentage at the time of Rivers’ interceptions was 39.9%. Only seven quarterbacks threw interceptions in more dire situations, and only two of those players were full-time starters.

Of the 10 picks Rivers threw in neutral game states (win probability between 20% and 80%), three came on passes that didn’t get past the line of scrimmage, two came on downfield throws on third-and-17 and third-and-19, and one was the result of a receiver slip.

Here are the four remaining interceptions in neutral game states…

There are some ugly ones in there, for sure, but none that should make us question if he can still play at a high level.

Many of Rivers’ interceptions came while under pressure, and one thing the analytics community has taught us is that a quarterback’s performance under pressure is volatile year-to-year. So his 6.5% interception rate under pressure (only Jameis threw picks at a higher rate under duress) tells us very little about how he’ll perform next season. And Rivers was one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL when operating out of a clean pocket, which bodes well for the 2020 season. He ranked sixth in success rate, eighth in total EPA, and 11th in yards-per-attempt. With just a little regression to the mean while playing under pressure, Rivers should be back to putting up top-10 numbers … if his body doesn’t betray him.

Rivers arm is shot but he can still make *most* of the throws

One thing that’s not going to improve is Rivers’ arm. That thing is cooked, and it shows up on film when Rivers pushes the ball downfield and has to lead receivers running vertical and out-breaking routes…

According to Sports Info Solutions, Rivers ranked 26th in EPA per attempt on vertical and out-breaking routes aimed more than 20 yards downfield. Here are the names behind him on that list: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mason Rudolph, Josh Rosen, Kyle Allen, Sam Darnold, Mitchell Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett.

So, yes, his arm does limit what an offense can do, but there aren’t many times in an NFL game when a quarterback has to make those throws. They represented just 7% of Rivers’ attempts in 2019 and that’s while playing in a vertical passing scheme. On just about every other throw, Rivers completes passes at a better than league-average rate. Per Next Gen Stats, his completion percentage was 2.1% higher than expected based on depth of target, receiver separation and other metrics that tend to affect accuracy. Rivers also finished just outside the top-10 in accuracy percentage on throws aimed further than 10 yards downfield (and was just 0.5% behind Kirk Cousins in eighth place, according to Sports Info Solutions.) How about on tight-window throws, when Rivers’ arm strength would really be tested? According to Pro Football Focus, his accuracy percentage on those attempts was 5.1% higher than the NFL average.

He can still fit the ball into the tightest of windows…

Rivers may no longer be able to make all the throws but he makes most of those throws at a high rate.

So what’s the ideal landing spot for Rivers?

If a team is looking for a quarterback who can get the ball to receivers streaking downfield, maybe Rivers isn’t the best option (which is why the Tampa Bay rumors are so odd), but a team like the Colts could sure use him. Indianapolis has one of the better offensive lines in the league, and Frank Reich, who runs a quick passing scheme, was Rivers’ quarterback coach and offensive coordinator in San Diego. That seems like a perfect match. The Colts have plenty of cap space, they’re a quarterback away from contending and they aren’t in a position to draft a quarterback who could start right away.

Rivers may only be a bridge option at this point, but he’s a damn good one, and quite possibly the best quarterback to hit the open market since Peyton Manning. It’s easy to forget after Manning shattered records in Denver, but before he transformed the Broncos into Super Bowl contenders overnight, we had the same questions about him that we’re now asking about Rivers.

Could Rivers do the same for some fringe contender? It’s hard to say, but good starting quarterbacks don’t hit free agency very often. For a QB-needy team, it’s a short-term bet worth taking.

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