The Philadelphia Phillies (67-64) play the second game of their three-game series with the Washington Nationals (55-75) Tuesday with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Philly took the series opener Monday by jumping out to a 3-run lead after the third inning. It held on to win 7-4.
The Phillies are still lingering around the NL playoff race as they sit 3.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East standings and 3 games back of the Cincinnati Reds for the second NL Wild Card berth.
Season series: Phillies lead 11-6.
LHP Matt Moore is on the mound for the Phillies. He is 2-4 with a 6.12 ERA (64 2/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.55 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 12 starts and eight relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 8-7, with 4 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 2 K Thursday against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Moore lost to Washington July 27, 6-4, with a stat line of 4 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster (59 PA): 8.95 FIP with a .321 batting average (BA), .446 wOBA, 20.3 K% and 84.8 mph exit velocity (EV).
LHP Patrick Corbin gets the nod for the Nationals. He is 7-13 with a 6.09 ERA (136 IP, 92 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 25 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 7-5, with 3 IP, 6 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 3 K Thursday at the Miami Marlins.
- Corbin is 1-1 against Philly this season with a 4.26 ERA (19 IP, 9 ER), 19 H, 2 BB and 19 K through three starts.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster (210 PA): 3.39 FIP with a .250 BA, .299 wOBA, .377 xSLG, 21.0 K% and 86.8 mph EV.
Phillies at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Nationals -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+155) | Nationals +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Prediction
Nationals 8, Phillies 5
Money line (ML)
GIMME the NATIONALS (-117) for 1 unit because this is a much better spot for them and there’s heavy “reverse line movement” (RLM) in Washington’s direction
The Nationals are 8-3 overall as a home favorite against lefty starters with a plus-29.8% return on investment (ROI) and a plus-2.18 average margin of victory.
Corbin has stronger pitching peripherals vs. Phillies hitters than Moore does against the Nationals and Washington’s lineup is second in wRC+, first in wOBA, eighth in BB/K and 13th in hard-contact rate against left-handed pitching.
Lastly, this game opened with Washington as a +110 money line underdog before it was dropped to the current number. However, according to Pregame.com, 80% of the action is on Philly and it’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the NATIONALS -1.5 (+160) ALTERNATE RUN LINE for a tiny wager, if at all, because I like Washington’s money line enough in this spot to “sprinkle” on the run line.
Moreover, the Nationals are 6-5 ATS with a plus-18.6% ROI as a home favorite going against a lefty starter. The Phillies are 6-7 ATS with a minus-26.4% ROI as a road underdog when facing a left-handed starter with a minus-1.39 average run differential.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 9.5 (-105) because both starters are bottom of the rotation guys and have an ERA north of 6.00.
Since there’s one-sided action in the betting market favoring the Over, I’d prefer not to follow the crowd in this spot.
For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]