The Philadelphia Phillies (54-53) continue a four-game series with the Washington Nationals (49-58) Wednesday. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Chase Anderson is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. Anderson is 2-4 with a 6.75 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9 in 44 IP in eight starts and five relief appearances.
- Has been hurt by an 11.7% home run/fly ball rate and 61.5% LOB rate which are exacerbated by a relatively low ground-ball rate (35.7%).
- In limited work has held current Washington bats to an aggregate .564 OPS. Has allowed 2 ER on 6 base runners in 7 IP vs. the Nats this season.
- Owns a .687 OPS on the road since 2019.
RHP Paolo Espino is the projected starter for the Nationals. He is 3-2 with a 3.08 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, and 1.6 BB/9 in 61 1/3 IP in a swingman role across eight starts and 16 relief appearances.
- Has been good in his home starts allowing 6 ER through 29 IP.
- Solid numbers of late (4 ER in last 15 1/3 IP) come alongside generous BABIP figures.
Phillies at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Nationals -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Nationals +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Prediction
Phillies 5, Nationals 4
Money line (ML)
Philadelphia has taken the first two games of this series. Washington owns .820 OPS since July 6.
The starting pitcher matchup is a gray area for Game 3. Recent success and surface numbers lean toward Espino and the Nats, but underlying peripherals point to some value with Anderson and the Phils.
The veteran hurler has done well to limit hard contact of late. Washington’s lefty bats do a lot of damage (.793 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers), but Anderson is the rare righty who has better stuff vs. lefty bats (career .683 OPS allowed, .648 this season).
Neither bullpen is any great shakes, but the Nationals relief corps has been a mess of late. They own an 8.01 ERA in the second half.
BACK THE PHILLIES (-105).
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the juice-drowned prices here and focus on the near pick ’em on the money line.
Over/Under (O/U)
Washington puts up solid offensive numbers at home, and the Nats own good second-half numbers in broad offensive categories.
Heading into Tuesday, the Phils owned an .830 OPS over their last 12 contests on the road.
This whole series has set up for Overs, and so far the Over is 2-for-2.
BACK THE OVER 9.5 (-102).
For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]