The Philadelphia Phillies (75-72) stop by Citi Field Saturday to continue their three-game series with the New York Mets (72-76) at 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Philly beat New York 4-3 Friday in the series opener as Phillies ace Zack Wheeler earned a win with 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
Season series: Phillies lead 7-4.
RHP Aaron Nola is Philly’s projected starter. Nola is 7-8 with a 4.58 ERA (163 IP, 83 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 over 29 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in Philly’s 5-4 home loss to the Colorado Rockies Sunday with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 10 K.
- Nola is 0-1 in three starts this year against New York with a 2.51 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 15 H, 4 BB and 24 K.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: 3.39 FIP with a .245 batting average (BA), .319 wOBA, .348 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 30.0 K% and 86.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 283 plate appearances (PA).
RHP Carlos Carrasco makes his 10th start for the Mets. Carrasco is 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 4 BB and 5 K in a 7-6 home victory over the New York Yankees Sunday.
- 2021 home splits: 0-1 with a 6.66 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.27 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB in six starts.
Phillies at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mets -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+145) | Mets +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Prediction
Mets 6, Philles 4
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the METS (-105) because we are getting “reverse line movement” in New York’s direction, Nola is less effective on the road and the Mets have hit much better this month than the Phillies.
For instance, according to Pregame.com, nearly 95% of the cash wagered is on the Phillies, but oddsmakers are moving their money line down from the -120 opener. It’s always a red flag in sports betting when sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
Also, Nola is just 3-5 in 16 road starts with a 5.56 ERA (3.45 road ERA), 1.24 WHIP (0.99 road WHIP) and 9.5 K/BB (4.1 K/BB on the road).
Finally, New York’s lineup has been a lot more productive in September. The Mets rank fourth in WAR, sixth in wOBA and seventh in wRC+ this month.
However, I can only “LEAN” METS (-105) because Carrasco has put together just one quality start and New York has lost five of its last six games, including four straight.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the METS +1.5 (-180) because I’d rather be greedy and bet New York’s money line at nearly even money.
But, the Mets on the run line is probably a better play since New York is 14-6 ATS as a home underdog while Philly has the second-worst cover rate as a road favorite at 6-24 ATS.
Furthermore, we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market as there’s more money on New York’s run line but more bets have been placed on Philly covering (according to Pregame.com). Typically, it’s wiser in sports betting to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.
Lastly, this might be unconventional, but I wouldn’t rule out throwing the Mets +1.5 (-180) into a parlay with perhaps the Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) for a plus-money payout.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 7.5 (-122) because I’m not totally sold on either starter and have a hunch this total is just too low.
The reason the total is a no-go is I just don’t have a good enough read on the total and the presumed “sharp” money is on the Under whereas the public is betting Over. I don’t know what the “wiseguys” see, but I don’t want to fade them in this spot.
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