The Toronto Raptors (15-15) host the Philadelphia 76ers (20-10) Sunday at their temporary home of Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the 76ers-Raptors odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Philadelphia has been missing key contributors over the last 10 days, which has led to 2-3 overall and 1-4 ATS record over that span. Those three losses were on the road to winning Western Conference teams.
The Raptors won and covered three straight road games coming into this one, including two wins over the Milwaukee Bucks. Nine of Toronto’s previous 10 games were on the road and the Raptors were 7-3 overall and ATS in those contests.
The Sixers beat the Raptors 100-93 earlier this season, but Philly is 4-6 overall in the last 10 meetings.
76ers at Raptors: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:58 p.m. ET.
- Money line: 76ers -155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Raptors +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread/ATS: 76ers -3.5 (-105) | Raptors +3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 223.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
76ers at Raptors: Key injuries
76ers
- PG Shake Milton (ankle) probable
- PG Ben Simmons (illness) probable
Raptors
- PG Kyle Lowry (thumb, ankle) doubtful
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76ers at Raptors: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
76ers 116, Raptors 114
Money line (ML)
PASS because Philadelphia is a dangerous team when it’s fully healthy and there isn’t enough value in Toronto’s money line.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Toronto should give Philly problems in this game because ball security has been the 76ers’ biggest problem this season and the Raptors can exploit that easily. The 76ers are 27th in turnover rate and give up the 2nd-most points off of turnovers per game in the Association.
The Raptors have the highest defensive-turnover percentage and 2nd-most points off of turnovers per game. In the first 76ers-Raptors meeting this season, Toronto outscored Philadelphia in points off of turnovers 25-13.
Despite this obvious edge, I only lean RAPTORS +3.5 (-115) because of the discrepancy of each team’s performance to close games out. The Sixers have the 2nd-highest net rating with a 13-3 record in clutch situations while Toronto is 6-10 in clutch situations with the 20th-best net rating.
TAKE RAPTORS +3.5 (-115) for a quarter-unit if at all.
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 223.5 (-110) is my favorite play in 76ers-Raptors. First, a major reason for the difference in both teams’ performance to end games has to do with drawing or committing fouls. The Sixers have the highest free-throw attempt rate in the NBA and the Raptors have the worst defensive FTA/FG rate.
Furthermore, Toronto outscored Philly 24-12 in fast break points in the first meeting, which leads me to another advantage for the Raptors: Transition basketball.
The Raptors run the 2nd-highest frequency of transition offense and 5th-most fast break points per game, going against a Sixers defense that allows the most fast break points per game.
Finally, BetMGM opened this 76ers-Raptors game’s total 5.5 points higher than the last despite it going Under by 26 points and the Under cashing in six of their previous meetings.
GIMME OVER 223.5 (-110) for 1.25 units.
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Also see:
- NBA fans react to Edwards’ jaw-dropping dunk (Rookie Wire)
- Embiid reacts to his dominant 50-point game in win over Bulls (Sixers Wire)
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