Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus dove into the potential outcomes for each second-year quarterback, including the Colts’ Anthony Richardson, setting a floor and a ceiling for each player.
The ceiling that Monson set for Richardson is sky-high, as expected, with him having All-Pro potential.
“He is the most athletically gifted quarterback to ever enter the NFL by some measures,” wrote Monson, “with a cannon for an arm and a high-end rushing threat. The only note of caution when it comes to potential is his below-average accuracy, but Josh Allen has shown that’s not always a permanent feature of a player.”
Monson adds that in the small sample size we saw from Richardson during his rookie season, he showcased a “high-level ability to read defenses, process and work from within the pocket.”
Richardson’s ability to continue building upon that framework, coupled with his athleticism, will really allow him and the Colts’ offense as a whole to stress opposing defenses both vertically and horizontally.
On the flip side, Monson selected Richardson’s floor as being Robert Griffin III, adding that the Colts may now have to be concerned about how they expose him to hits and the potential risk that comes with that.
“If he can no longer be deployed in certain ways because of that injury risk, you lose part of why his athleticism makes him special. Josh Allen would still be a great quarterback if you removed his ability to run around and play Superman, but he wouldn’t be special.”
Griffin was the NFL’s Rookie of the Year in 2012, throwing for 3,200 yards with 20 touchdowns to five interceptions, along with rushing for 815 yards and seven additional scores.
However, Griffin would never play a full season due to injuries early on. He appeared in 15 games as a rookie, followed by a total of 22 games during his next two years with Washington.
Helping Richardson hit his ceiling is that he doesn’t have to be Superman in this Colts’ offense. He will be playing behind a top offensive line unit, sharing the backfield with Jonathan Taylor, and he’ll have Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and AD Mitchell at receiver.
On top of that, the continuity of being in Shane Steichen’s quarterback-friendly offense for a second season will provide Richardson with a strong foundation and a jumping-off point.
“I really believe Anthony Richardson can take a big leap this year for a number of reasons,” said Mina Kimes on ESPN’s NFL Live. “One, Shane Steichen confirmed last season what we all believed when he was hired from Philadelphia: he is a brilliant play-caller. Remarkably quarterback-friendly offense for Gardner Minshew despite some up-and-down play from the quarterback.
“And then the group of skill players,” Kimes added. “One of my favorite picks in the entire draft was AD Mitchell going to the Colts. In part because of his upside as a true X receiver but also because of how he fits in with Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. I view them as very complementary with Mitchell being the guy who can really take the top off a defense and win downfield. Everything is set up for Richardson.”
At the end of the day, the ceiling for this Colts’ offense and the team as a whole will be determined by Richardson’s ceiling. With only 98 career dropbacks, there is still going to be a learning curve that Richardson will have to navigate this season, but he’s entering an ideal situation to help him make that leap.