Pro Football Focus believes that this one matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the Bills “could define” the game.
In a recent article, Bradley Locker picked out individual matchups from a handful of different games that could carry a lot of weight in determining the outcomes. For the Colts and Bills, it was Joe Flacco vs. the Bills’ Cover 1 defensive look.
Locker noted that Cover 1 is the third-highest coverage rate that the Bills utilize this season and among all teams, they rank fifth in coverage grade when in that look. For comparison, the Bills’ overall coverage grade ranks 19th.
However, Flacco has found his share of success against Cover 1 looks this season. Locker adds that Flacco’s passing grade against Cover 1 schemes is the fifth-best in football.
So who wins this battle of strength vs. strength? Or does Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott choose to run more Cover 2 and Cover 3?
The Colts are coming off of what was their worst offensive performance of the season against Minnesota. In several key statistical areas, Indianapolis posted season-lows.
While how Flacco and the passing game fares against the Bills when in Cover 1 will be worth watching, for me, any sort of success on offense for the Colts will begin with Jonathan Taylor and the run game.
For starters, Buffalo has taken their lumps against the run this season, ranking 26th in yards per carry allowed.
In addition to that, moving the ball on the ground regularly keeps the offense ahead of the sticks and out of predictable passing situations. This then can open up opportunities in the pass game, whether off play-action or in capitalizing on the advantageous short down-and-distance situations, taking some of the burden off Flacco and the receivers.
Having a consistent run game to lean on may actually help the Colts get more Cover 1 looks out of the Bills if their emphasis turns to containing Taylor.
Executing this run first gameplan will also be dependent upon the defense holding its own against a high-scoring Bills offense. If Buffalo jumps out to a quick lead, it could result in the Colts becoming more pass-heavy.