Heading into the 2020 season, many national pundits aren’t projecting the Jacksonville Jaguars to do all that well and the same can be said for the oddsmakers in Vegas. Often times the team has been predicted to receive the first overall pick, meaning there are a lot who feel the team could get three wins at best tops.
On the other hand, there are some fans who feel the Jags are being vastly underrated as quarterback Gardner Minshew II propelled the team to six wins in 2019 and could take another step. Add in the additions made around him like coordinator Jay Gruden, receivers Laviska Shenault Jr. and Collin Johnson, and the possibility of free agent Tyler Eifert turning in a healthy season — and maybe those fans are on to something.
Unfortunately, for the optimistic fans, owner Shad Khan hasn’t given many a reason to be optimistic, registering a losing season seven of his eight years as owner. Still, the crew at Pro Football Focus were able to look at both sides of the spectrum after running various simulations to project the best-case and worst-case records for all 32 teams heading into the 2020 season.
To get their results, they use the simulations to evaluate the 10th-percentile and 90th-percentile outcomes for every team in the league. In the Jags’ case, the worst-case scenario was 4-12, as analyst Ben Linsey stated Minshew could decline due to a shaky offensive line and limited pass-catching weapons.
On the other hand, the Jags’ best-case scenario ended up being a game over .500 (9-7) with the following explanation breaking down how it could happen:
How they get there: The defense is opportunistic enough to keep the Jaguars in close games. Josh Allen makes the jump to bona fide star as a pass rusher off the edge, softening the blow of Ngakoue’s likely departure. Myles Jack bounces back in 2020 with a performance reminiscent of the play that earned him a multi-year contract in Jacksonville to join Joe Schobert as one of the better off-ball linebacker duos in the NFL, particularly in coverage. Henderson’s performance more closely resembles his 2018 tape rather than what he showed last season. His natural athleticism and movement skills translate to a strong rookie performance as the Jaguars’ top cornerback.
So, in a nutshell, the Jags need their defense to play to their potential and basically fans should hope the team is a defensive-led team like in 2017. When looking at the players named by Linsey, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities for each to reach the goals mentioned, as the defense has all the talent in the world. At the same time, the Jags’ defense is a young one and the group could take some time to feel each other out.
Additionally, for the Jags to achieve a nine-win season, they need the offense to take another step, too. With the notable offensive names we mentioned along with Josh Oliver, Leonard Fournette, and improved offensive line play, they indeed can surprise some people.
Here at Jags Wire, most of our writers feel a six-win season is about what fans should expect. The uncertainty of an offseason plan definitely can’t help a team as young as the Jags, but it would be a great scenario if we were wrong and the Jags exceeded 6-10.