Penn State has yet to play a single down of college football in te 2023 season, but the Nittany Lions have already been bumped down in the updated ESPN Football Power Index.
Penn State was dropped to no. 10 in the ESPN FPI rankings following the results from Week 0. There were only a small handful of games played in college football’s Week 0, but it was enough for one team to move up the rankings and skip ahead of Penn State.
That team was Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish dominated Navy in their season opener in Ireland, topping the rival Midshipmen 42-3. As a result, Notre Dame moved up three spots from no. 10 in the preseason FPI rankings.
With Notre Dame moving up three spots, Penn State was not the only team being knocked down a peg. Clemson and USC each were moved down one spot behind No. 7 Notre Dame in the updated FPI ranking. USC moved down a spot despite their own comfortable victory in week 0 over San Jose State. Clemson was idle in Week 0 and will open its season this weekend on the road in ACC play against Duke.
Ohio State has the top spot in the FPI rankings, followed by Alabama and then two-time defending national champion Georgia. Michigan is the only other Big Ten ahead of Penn State other than Ohio State. Michigan is ranked no. 6 in the FPI rankings as the top six teams remain unchanged. LSU and Texas, respectively, fill the gap between no. 3 Georgia and no. 6 Michigan.
The ESPN FPI projected win total for Penn State is currently 9.3. The most likely losses would appear to be against Ohio State and Michigan, according to the FPI projections (although Michigan’s projected win total averages out to 9.8, so perhaps it is a toss-up between Penn State and Michigan).
Penn State has a 2.4% chance of going undefeated and a 13.4% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff according to the updated FPI. The top four teams projected to make the playoff according to the FPI are Ohio State (70.6%), Alabama (55.5%), Georgia (50.2%), and Clemson (25.4%). Penn State’s national championship odds are projected to be 1.8% according to the updated FPI.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance.
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