Patriots vs. Texans: Betting odds, analysis and prediction

An epic dual between shutdown corner Stephon Gilmore and No. 1 receiver DeAndre Hopkins takes center stage on Sunday night when the New England Patriots visit the Houston Texans.

A week of turkey eating and Black Friday shopping will crescendo when the New England Patriots go on the road for a much-anticipated Sunday Night Football game against the Houston Texans.

Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson, Bill Belichick and Bill O’Brien, Stephon Gilmore and DeAndre Hopkins—are there any better reasons for a football fan to be thankful?

The Patriots swiftly bounced back from an ugly loss to the running freight train that is the Baltimore Ravens with back-to-back wins over the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. Brady didn’t have much to work with against the Cowboys while basically playing in a monsoon.

Yet, that faithful Patriots defense shut down the star-studded Cowboys offense in a game where Gilmore held three-time Pro Bowl receiver Amari Cooper to zero catches.

Meanwhile, the Texans barely survived an AFC South divisional run-in with the Indianapolis Colts after getting ramrodded by the Ravens. Despite being on the road, the Patriots will enter Sunday’s game as -3.5 favorites with the over/under being 44.5 points.

Why you should pick the Patriots

These match-ups haven’t typically worked out in the Texans’ favor, but it has been even worse with O’Brien as head coach. The former Patriots offensive coordinator is 0-5 when going head-to-head with Belichick. That sort of record can lead to a big brother syndrome that’s hard to overcome.

Quite frankly, Belichick has owned O’Brien.

Watson is a special quarterback that brings a legitimate champion’s mentality to the Texans, but he’ll also be going toe-to-toe with arguably the best defense in football. Hopkins will have to fight for his life to make plays against the soul-sucking cornerback nightmare that is Gilmore, and Will Fuller won’t have any easier of a time dealing with another physical corner in J.C. Jackson.

The Patriots defense rarely gives up big plays, and they’re going to take away Watson’s vaunted deep ball and make him methodically move down the field. Houston lacks depth at running back, and their offensive line has let Watson down more often than not this season.

Brady might also have all of his receiving weapons on the field at the same time this week against a Texans secondary that ranks 25th in the league against the pass. Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett both made the trip with the hope to suit up and give the frustrated Patriots quarterback a better shot at competing.

Why you should pick the Texans

The Patriots are trying to stay ahead of the Ravens for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, while the Texans are vying with the Colts and Tennessee Titans to win their division. A loss at home on Sunday would be a major step in the wrong direction towards those efforts.

The Texas need this game.

There is also the revenge factor for Watson in finally exorcising his Belichick and Brady demons ahead of a potential Super Bowl run. Hopkins and Fuller on the field together are arguably the most dynamic pair of receivers in football. There hasn’t been a better combination since thunder and lightning. Throw Watson into the mix and you have a Category 5 storm brewing for the Patriots defense.

Texans running back Carlos Hyde isn’t Ezekiel Elliott, Mark Ingram or Nick Chubb, but he is a player to take seriously against a Patriots defense that has shown some cracks up front in stopping the run. He is actually on pace to having a career-season with the Texans in a year where he’s run for 836 yards and four touchdowns.

Beating the Patriots could be more about feeding Hyde than leaning on Watson’s arm.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Texans have experienced a noticeable dip in production without J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, but they’ll be facing a Patriots offense that has looked anemic for most of the season. If there was ever a chance for a statement defensive performance from the Texans, this would be the game.

Trends

Via Covers.com

  • Patriots are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight up win.
  • Patriots are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after giving up less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played at home.

Prediction

The smart pick is the Patriots and the over on Sunday.

A wave of sickness somehow made its way into the Patriots locker room, but the team has averted a near catastrophe with multiple star players originally listed as questionable for this game. The potential return of Sanu and Dorsett, along with another week with Isaiah Wynn back at left tackle, tips the scales in the Patriots’ favor on a night where the defense will have Watson’s number.

Let’s not pretend like Brady and the Patriots offense have been struggling against cupcake opponents in the last few weeks. The Ravens, Eagles and Cowboys defenses are top-12 units in the league. So this will be an opportunity for Brady and company to get some confidence going against the No. 20-ranked defense in the NFL.

On the other side of the ball, Belichick will take away the deep pass from Watson and force him to throw in a phone booth against tight coverage. That has been a recipe for disaster for opposing quarterbacks all season against the Patriots’ defense, and the same will continue to be the case for the Texans on Sunday.

Give me the Patriots and the over.

 

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