The New England Patriots face one of their final “get right” opponents of the season on Sunday when traveling to Ohio for a head-to-head meeting with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Hope is hanging by a thread as the struggling Patriots offense prepares to step onto the field against the worst team in football. One can only imagine the levels of frustration that would overcome quarterback Tom Brady if the team still can’t move the ball against the Bengals.
He might put a down payment on a house in Los Angeles or Nashville first thing on Monday morning.
There is a bit of drama leading into this game with the Patriots’ camera crew being caught filming the Bengals’ sideline during their road game against the Cleveland Browns last week.
According to the Patriots, the camera crew unknowingly broke league rules while filming a team scout for a “Do Your Job” video segment that was being put up on the team’s official website. The NFL is investigating the matter even though it was reported that they are likely to believe the Patriots after watching the video tape. It only makes sense that Spygate allegations would pop up when the Patriots were on to Cincinnati.
It’s like the team has stepped into a time machine to reimagine their worst nightmares. The Patriots will enter Sunday’s game as -9.5 favorites with the under/over being 40.5 points.
Why the Patriots will win
This will be the week when the Patriots unleash rookie receiver N’Keal Harry. Do they really have any other choice?
Brady is a Julian Edelman injury away from one of the Patriots’ ball boys being promoted to the active roster. Owner Robert Kraft has seemingly dug in on his decision not to attempt to bring back all-world receiver Antonio Brown, even if it means sitting and watching the 2019 season go up in flames. So Brady and Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels have to buy into Harry whether they’re ready to or not.
They won’t find a better test subject than the Bengals’ anemic defense that ranks second-worst in the NFL in yards per game (399.5). Perhaps even running back Sony Michel can find his way out of the doghouse with the Bengals allowing an average 156.7 rushing yards to opposing offenses. It doesn’t get any easier than this for Brady and company.
There is also the mere thought of Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton going against that vaunted Patriots defense. Joe Mixon is experiencing somewhat of a resurgence at running back, but there’s no chance I’d trust Dalton throwing into the teeth of the best secondary in the league. The veteran quarterback has thrown nearly as many interceptions as he has touchdowns this season.
Why the Bengals will win
A dead clock is right twice in a day.
That alone means there’s hope for the Bengals against the slumping Patriots. It doesn’t have to look pretty offensively for Dalton as long as the Bengals defense does its part in slowing down Brady. There have been enough games in the season to see that the Patriots aren’t a great team offensively.
The offensive line has been too inconsistent, and the team can’t run the ball as effectively as they were late in 2018. Brady had more rushing yards than Michel did against the Chiefs.
There are also the issues with receivers struggling to create separation and running the expected routes. Brady is essentially down to Edelman and running back James White as his only trustworthy receivers.
That dumbs things down significantly for Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. As long as Edelman is doubled and White is taken into consideration, the Patriots are going to continue to have trouble moving the ball. It hasn’t all been sugar and rainbows for Dalton, but he deserves better than being treated like the red-headed stepchild. It isn’t his fault the Bengals have been living proof of incompetency over the years.
Trends
Via Covers.com
- Patriots are 47-23 ATS in their last 70 games overall.
- Patriots are 47-22-1 ATS in their last 70 games following a straight up loss.
- Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf.
Prediction
The smart pick is the Chiefs and the under on Sunday.
The Bengals were able to pile up 451 yards last week against the Browns, but their inability to finish drives with touchdowns cost them the game. They were 1-of-5 in redzone attempts on offense. Even with the Patriots offense struggling, opposing teams still need 20-plus points to beat them. I’m not sure the Bengals have it in them to find that sort of offensive success against coach Bill Belichick’s defense.
It doesn’t help matters that the Bengals are the third-worst team in turnover margin. Forget about The Boogeymen. The Patriots defense has enough Aladdins to be called the “Team of Thieves” with the ridiculous amount of times they’ve pickpocketed turnovers.
Yet, this game truly feels like the offensive unveiling Patriots fans have waited to see. They’ll finally be able to run the ball when facing the worst rushing defense in the league, and McDaniels’ decision to draw up more players for Harry will pay off. There will be no pats on the back for beating up on the worst team in football, but the Patriots could draw the confidence needed for another deep playoff run.
I’m laying the points on Sunday.
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