The Carolina Panthers will pick first in the 2021 NFL draft according to a projection by Aaron Shatz at Football Outsiders.
While it’s exciting to think about a potential No. 1 overall pick, this obviously means Carolina would finish with the worst record in the league this coming season. The main problem FO foresees for the Panthers is a weak defensive unit, which they predict will rank No. 32 in DVOA this year, per ESPN.
“The biggest problem for the Panthers is going to be their defense, which has the worst DVOA projection in the league. Carolina already ranked 25th in defensive DVOA a year ago, but from that defense the Panthers have subtracted nine different players with at least 4 approximate value . . . last season according to Pro Football Reference.”
The model also projects Carolina will have the No. 32-ranked special teams unit in the NFL and the hardest schedule by their numbers.
While it wouldn’t come as a shock to see the Panthers finish last, we think they have the potential to win six games in 2020.
The greatest factor in that will be how well Matt Rhule, Joe Brady and Phil Snow perform in their respective roles. This coaching staff doesn’t have a lot of pro experience, but if they’re willing to buck traditional wisdom and truly embrace analytics while establishing a strong culture, a 6-10 (or better) record is definitely a possibility.
As important as coaching is though, talent is what wins games. This franchise is entering a rebuilding period and fans should temper their expectations. Right now, this roster is easily the worst in a tough NFC South division and possibly the weakest in the conference, as well.
On the bright side, if the model is correct then the Panthers will be in an ideal spot to land a new franchise quarterback. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence is the top prospect in the 2021 class.
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