Carolina Panthers head coach Matt Rhule has quite the hole to try and dig himself out of in 2022. And although he’s helped piece together a relatively encouraging offseason for his team—with a handful of solid additions on both the coaching staff and the depth chart—he hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt.
That showed in Pro Football Focus’ recent rankings of the NFL’s non-rookie head coaches, which applied the Pythagorean Wins Theorem and a multi-level model to fix effects in establishing an even playing ground of sorts. Basically, how well would each coach do with an average roster based off their results from 2011 to 2021?
Out of the 26 charted, Rhule comes in at a lowly 24 (which may actually be a surprise considering he’s right on the ledge with the franchise entering a pivotal campaign).
“Rhule has overseen some solid defensive performances during his time in Carolina, but his offensive results have been nothing less than putrid considering the Panthers’ talent,” Conor McQuiston writes.
While ranking Rhule 26th on offense and second on defense, PFF’s method forecasts a 8.0-9.0 record for the third-year coach under their specific circumstances. That mark ranks ahead of only New Orleans’ Dennis Allen (7.6-9.4) and New York’s Robert Saleh (7.6-9.4).
Of course, this is essentially—albeit an impressive one—an analytics-driven hypothetical. In fact, the traditionalists are probably waving their fists towards the sky.
But one thing is for sure—numbers don’t lie, no matter which you prefer. And with 10 wins over two seasons, Rhule isn’t exactly inspiring much faith at the moment.
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