The Green Bay Packers believe they’ve put themselves in a favorable spot at the game’s most important position. GM Brian Gutekunst and coach Matt LaFleur have a two-time MVP who they believe is still playing at a high level, and a first-round developmental prospect with huge talent to groom behind him.
Aaron Rodgers gives the Packers a chance to win big right now, while Jordan Love provides the long-term future at quarterback.
However, timing is everything, and by taking a quarterback high in this year’s draft, the Packers will almost certainly have tricky decisions to make contractually in a few years.
Rodgers’ contract ties him to the Packers for the next four seasons. Love, as a first-round pick, will have a fully guaranteed four-year deal with a fifth-year option.
The Packers can do next to nothing about Rodgers’ deal for at least the next two seasons. Forget the trade discussions. Financially, he can’t be moved before 2022 without the Packers dropping a bomb on their salary cap. Even after two years, the Packers would still take on a cap hit of over $17 million by moving him. It’s a near certainty – barring some kind of relationship implosion between the two sides – that Rodgers will be the starting quarterback for the next two years, and it remains possible that Rodgers will be in Green Bay for the next three seasons.
In a sense, Rodgers’ contract will keep the Packers away from the temptation of playing Love prematurely. The Utah State passer will truly get a chance to sit and develop, likely for two years but maybe even for three.
After 2022? Anything is possible.
This is where the trickiness of the situation comes into view. Teams must exercise a first-round pick’s fifth-year option after Year 3. Will the Packers have seen more than a few regular-season snaps from Love before having to make that big decision?
Ditching Rodgers and transitioning to Love within the next three years would be expensive. But not transitioning to him within the next three years will be equally risky. This is a fragile situation financially that will need plenty of TLC over the next few years.
Rodgers’ deal contains less than $3 million in guaranteed money in 2023, the final year of the contract. He’ll either depart Green Bay or need a brand new deal by then. Rodgers paying out that final season of the deal just isn’t realistic.
Another factor: By having the majority of Love’s contract overlap with the near-guaranteed years in Rodgers’ deal, the Packers are mostly sacrificing the awesome roster-building power of working around a cheap rookie deal.
But here’s the kicker: the financials don’t really matter if Rodgers continues playing well and Love develops into a starting-caliber quarterback. The Packers may have financial hurdles to clear in the future but they’d have nothing to worry about on the field, where it actually matters, if the process plays out right.