The Green Bay Packers can clinch the NFC North title and secure a top-3 seed in the NFC playoffs by beating the Minnesota Vikings in primetime on Monday night at U.S. Bank Stadium, a venue where the Packers have never won.
Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Monday night:
1. Rushers in the spotlight
This matchup will feature four of the NFL’s most productive pass-rushers, with Green Bay’s Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith matched up against Minnesota’s Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. Who will be the most disruptive duo on Monday night? The Packers kept Kirk Cousins under consistent pressure in the first meeting, especially early, while Hunter and Griffen both got going once the Packers built a lead. Cousins has been terrific this season, but he’s prone to mistakes and inefficiency when pressured. This is a great opportunity for the two Smiths to take over another game. On offense, David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga have a big challenge awaiting them. Hunter and Griffen are tough to block in the noise at U.S. Bank Stadium.
2. Winning the rushing battle
The Vikings are 9-1 when they rush for more yards than their opponent and 1-3 when their opponent wins the rushing battle this season. Everything the Vikings do on offense is based around the run, and that probably won’t change even if running backs Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison don’t play on Monday night. They block well and stay committed to the run as a foundation of the scheme. Mike Zimmer’s defense has only allowed three opponents to rush for more than 125 yards this season, although the Packers accomplished the feat in Week 2. The Seahawks ran for 218 yards and scored 37 points against the Vikings. The Lions and Chargers managed 132 total rushing yards and scored just 17 total points the last two weeks. Can the Packers contain the Vikings on the ground and get Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams going on Monday night?
3. Will Kenny keep killing it?
In the first meeting, Kenny Clark dominated rookie center Garrett Bradbury. The two will face off again on Monday night. Bradbury has improved, especially in pass protection, but Clark has overcome a midseason injury and is once again dominating. He’s controlling games up front, allowing the defense to play lighter against the run, and he’s getting – and winning – far more one-on-one battles as a rusher. Mike Pettine has found ways to get Clark freed up, using Za’Darius Smith as a rover to eliminate opportunities for teams to double-team the Packers’ nose tackle. Clark needs to be a game-changer on Monday night.
4. Heart of the defense
Vikings linebacker Eric Kendricks is having an All-Pro season. He runs well, diagnoses quickly and is rarely out of position, and he’s arguably the best cover linebacker in football. His matchup against Aaron Jones could help decide the game. In the first meeting, Jones found cutback lanes and gashed the Vikings for chunk gains. Expect Kendricks and the Vikings front to put up a better fight this time around. Also, will the Packers prioritize getting the football to the running backs in the passing game? Jones and Jamaal Williams were effective as receivers in Week 2.
5. Packers CBs vs. Vikings WRs
The matchup of the game: Jaire Alexander and Kevin King vs. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Both the Vikings receivers have terrorized the Packers in recent years, although Alexander and King finally put up a legitimate fight back in Week 2. Ideally, the Packers would stop the run and force Kirk Cousins to win the game with his arm. Can the cornerbacks prevent big plays and help the Packers get off the field on big third downs? Alexander has played at a high level all season but is lacking that one special game. Maybe he’ll produce it Monday night against Thielen and Diggs, one of the game’s best receiver tandems.
Prediction: Vikings 28, Packers 20 (11-3)
The Vikings aren’t going to have Pro Bowler Dalvin Cook, creating a real possibility for the Packers to win their first game at U.S. Bank Stadium. The worry here is that the Packers offense will struggle to move the football in a tough environment and the defense will allow too many explosive plays to beat a talented team on the road.