The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions will kick off Week 14 in the NFL season with a pivotal NFC North showdown at Ford Field on Thursday night. With a win, the Packers — who have won three straight — can get back into the division race. With a loss, the Packers will have to focus their sights on the wildcard.
Can Matt LaFleur’s team avenge the Nov. 3 loss to the Lions at Lambeau Field and secure the biggest win of the season?
Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 14:
Toyotathon test
Can Jordan Love keep rolling? Since the bye and the start of Toyotathon, Love has three straight games with a passer rating of 100.0 and five touchdown passes and just one interception. Like last year, he’s heating up at exactly the right time. The Lions have 14 interceptions and are giving up only 5.9 net yards per pass attempt this season, so Detroit’s defense — even with so many injured players — presents a big test, especially on the road. In primetime, and at a venue where he produced one of his best games of the season last year, Love can make a big statement.
Physical opportunity
Both teams will be playing their third game in 12 days. While the Packers are dealing with their own injury issues entering Thursday night, the Lions have big issues up front on defense and could be vulnerable to some smashmouth football. Key contributors for the Lions are out at edge rusher, defensive tackle and linebacker. Can the Packers — and running back Josh Jacobs — impose their will early on?
Containing the new Fab Five
The Lions might be without left tackle Taylor Decker on Thursday, but Jared Goff’s offense won’t be lacking weapons. The new “Fab Five” might be the best in football. Running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have combined for over 2,000 total yards and 22 touchdowns, receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is closing in on another 1,000-yard season, tight end Sam LaPorta has five receiving touchdowns and speedster Jameson Williams is averaging almost 17.0 yards per touch. Can the Packers keep these five from taking over the game? On a fast track at Ford Field, Jeff Hafley’s defense has a big challenge awaiting.
Avoiding negative plays
In the first meeting, the Packers had a pick-six turn the game before the half and made too many self-inflicted mistakes — mostly in the form of penalties and drops. Can Love protect the football and avoid the game-changing turnover? Can LaFleur’s team consistently catch the football and avoid the killer negative plays in the red zone? The Packers have made big strides in all these areas since the first meeting. It’s time for the Packers to prove they can play a clean game against a top contender.
Speaking of contenders…
This is a huge opportunity for the Packers to get a signature win with the playoffs nearing. Last year, the upset win at Ford Field lit up a young, improving team with confidence. This year, a win at Ford Field could keep the Packers surging to start December. Matt LaFleur’s team has three losses — to the 10-2 Eagles, 10-2 Vikings and 11-1 Vikings. But their only win over a team currently holding a postseason spot was a last-second victory over the Texans. The Packers were impressive in dispatching the 49ers and Dolphins over the last two weeks, but a win over the Lions on Thursday night would really prove their title credentials.
Prediction: Packers 27, Lions 24 (7-5)
At full strength, the Lions present the Packers with a ton of difficult problems on both sides of the football. But Matt LaFleur’s team isn’t getting the Lions at full strength, and I think the physical edge the Packers can create on offense is going to be the difference. These teams are playing a third game in less than two weeks, and the Packers have established — through the run game and the ability to create yards after the catch — a tough, physical identity. Playing indoors changes the dynamic somewhat, but the Packers can still attack up front where injuries have devastated Detroit’s first line of defense. Add in Jordan Love’s health and efficiency coming out of the bye, the improvements made in the red zone and the suffocating run defense shown over the last two weeks, and the Packers have the ingredients ready to beat the short-handed Lions. In the biggest game of the season, the Packers ride Jacobs, Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed and get the one takeaway necessary to escape Ford Field with a huge victory.