Packers vs. 49ers: 5 things to watch and a prediction

Five things to watch and a prediction for the NFC Championship Game between the Packers and 49ers.

The NFC Championship Game will match the Green Bay Packers against the San Francisco 49ers for a second time this season at Levi’s Stadium, with Sunday’s winner earning the right to represent the conference at Super Bowl LIV.

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Sunday:

1. Starting fast

Aaron Rodgers highlighted it all week: The Packers must start fast in San Francisco on Sunday. Back in Week 12, Rodgers coughed up a fumble on the first drive and handed the 49ers a 7-0 lead. The Packers never really settled into the game and it resulted in a 23-0 halftime deficit. For most of the year, the Packers have been a terrific first quarter team, especially on offense. Getting a few positive plays and possibly an early lead could really provide a spark for the visitors and calm the home crowd. Can the underdog Packers come out playing loose and fast on the road?

[lawrence-related id=38335,38275,38258]

2. Defending play-action

Playcaller Kyle Shanahan really stresses defenses with the action passing game. It’s a devastating part of the 49ers attack because Shanahan marries the run and pass game so well, and defenses have to respect the run. In the first meeting, Jimmy Garoppolo scorched the Packers for big plays off run fakes, especially to the middle of the field. The 49ers get people moving the run wrong ways and then throw the ball behind it. The Packers must do a better job staying disciplined and reacting the right way against the action passes Sunday. Stopping the run early and making the 49ers a little more one-dimensional could help, although play-action is effective regardless of how well the run is or isn’t working.

3. Changing the narrative

The 49ers won the line of scrimmage in the first meeting, and much of the focus for the rematch is centered around the Packers blocking the 49ers’ pass rush. However, keep this in mind: Per ESPN, the Packers had a better Pass Rush Win Rate and a significantly better Pass Block Win Rate than the 49ers this season. Can the Packers flip the narrative and be the aggressor at the line of scrimmage this time around? A fully intact offensive line must better protect Aaron Rodgers, while Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith and Kenny Clark need to disrupt everything the 49ers do by consistently winning one-on-one matchups. The Packers must capitalize on a potential hidden advantage.

4. Clutch Rodgers

The Packers didn’t convert a single third down with Rodgers at quarterback in the first meeting with the Niners. Last week, Rodgers was at his very best in clutch situations, converting seven different third downs, including two on the first drive and two more on the final drive. The Packers need a better plan and another clutch performance from Rodgers, who looked confident in the calls and decisive throwing on time against the Seahawks. Just about everything went wrong for the Packers on third down on Nov. 24, but simple improvement in a few areas – such as pass protection, effectiveness on early downs and play from the quarterback – could make a huge difference Sunday. Expect a better plan from Matt LaFleur, too. Third down could make or break the game for the Packers.

[lawrence-related id=38305,38183]

5. Winning YAC

The 49ers make a living off of gaining yards after the catch on offense and preventing yards after the catch on defense. No team in football had a bigger margin between yards gained after the catch and yards allowed after the catch, thanks to a quick-throw offense and a smothering defense. Can the Packers put a dent in the Niners’ advantage on Sunday? Rookie receiver Deebo Samuel and All-Pro tight end George Kittle are both among the NFL leaders in yards after the catch. The Packers can’t let run in space. On offense, Matt LaFleur’s plan needs to find ways of getting Davante Adams and Aaron Jones into the open field. They were shut down in the first meeting. It’s hard to see the Packers scoring enough points to win if they’re shut down again.

Prediction: 49ers 23, Packers 18 (13-4)

There are a lot of good reasons to expect Sunday’s game script to play out differently than the first meeting. And let’s be honest: the first meeting won’t mean a whole lot once the ball is kicked off Sunday. If the Packers can get into the game early, take care of the ball, win battles at the line of scrimmage and avoid giving up a bunch of big plays, they’ll be right in it at the end with a chance to win and get to the Super Bowl. And Matt LaFleur’s team has consistently found ways to get it done late in games. Still, it’s hard to pick against the 49ers, the most complete team left in the field. They have a cutting edge offense loaded with playmakers and a fast, talented defense at all three levels. The Packers can absolutely win this game; I’m just not confident they will.

[lawrence-related id=38213,38170,38283]