No stretch of four games looks more difficult for the Green Bay Packers in 2020 than the quartet of matchups coming out of the team’s Week 5 bye.
According to a win percentage model created by NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund, the Packers’ four toughest games this season come against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6, the Houston Texans in Week 7, the Minnesota Vikings in Week 8 and the San Francisco 49ers in Week 9.
Frelund’s model considers all four games to be essentially a coin flip, with the Packers underdogs in three of the games and only slightly favored against the Texans.
Three of the four games will be played away from Lambeau Field, with the Vikings’ visit in Week 8 providing the only home game during the four-game stretch.
Although so much can and will change during the course of the season, the four games do look daunting on paper.
The Buccaneers added quarterback Tom Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski to a team that won five of its last eight games in 2019. The Texans won the AFC South at 10-6 and advanced to the AFC Divisional Round. The Vikings finished 10-6 and won a playoff game in New Orleans. The 49ers won the NFC title and beat the Packers decisively twice in 2019, both times in San Francisco.
The travel won’t be easy. The Packers face long road trips to Tampa Bay and Houston during back-to-back weeks and then – after one game in Green Bay – must go to San Francisco on a short week for a Thursday night game.
While the Packers do get the benefit of a week off before the tough stretch, they’ll also have to play 12 straight games without a week off to finish the season.
Opposing quarterbacks must always be considered in determining the difficulty of a schedule. The Packers will play Brady, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo during the four-game stretch coming out of the bye. Brady is the most accomplished quarterback of all-time, Watson and Cousins were both Pro Bowlers in 2020 and Garoppolo captains one of the most difficult offenses in football to defend. It’s not necessarily a murder’s row of quarterbacks, but all four are experienced starters with a recent track record of production.
Many coaches, such as former Packers coach Mike McCarthy, like to break down each season into quarters. Here’s the Packers schedule by quarter:
First quarter: at Vikings, vs. Lions, at Saints, vs. Falcons
Second quarter: at Buccaneers, at Texans, vs. Vikings, at 49ers
Third quarter: vs. Jaguars, at Colts, vs. Bears, vs. Eagles
Fourth quarter: at Lions, vs. Panthers, vs. Titans, at Bears
All four quarters present challenges, but it’s clear the second quarter looks like the most difficult. During no other four-game stretch do the Packers play more than two road games or more than two playoff teams from last season.
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