Winning the turnover battle is always important. We know that. But whether the Green Bay Packers do win it each week or not has basically dictated whether or not they won the game.
This season, when the Packers win the turnover battle, they are 5-1 in those games. When they lose it, they are just 1-6. And when they tie, not surprisingly, they are 2-2.
Green Bay’s Week 18 opponent, the Chicago Bears, have been one of the most generous teams this season in terms of giving the ball away, ranking 10th in turnovers with 25 through 17 games. On the flip side, they’ve also been one of the stingiest when it comes to takeaways on defense, with 27–the third-most in football.
A key contributor to the Packers turnaround on offense, which really began in Week 11 against the Los Angeles Chargers, is Jordan Love taking care of the football, having thrown just one interception since then. During that span of games, quarterbacks coach Tom Clements mentioned improved decision-making, specifically when under pressure, as the one area where he’s seen Love improve the most.
Led by their defense, the Bears are 5-2 in their last seven games and have generated a whopping 18 takeaways in that stretch. This includes five games with three or more takeaways in a single contest.
Most of Chicago’s takeaways have come off interceptions despite ranking 27th in pressure rate. The Bears enter the final game of 2023 with the most interceptions in football with 22. Cornerback Tyrique Stevenson is second in the NFL with four, while fellow cornerbacks Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson each have two. Linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards lead their position group with three each.
“We know it’s going to be a tremendous challenge,” said Matt LaFleur of playing the Bears. “I think Chicago is as improved as any team, when you look at them from Week 1 to where they are now. They’ve done a really, really good the last few weeks.”
Since quarterback Justin Fields returned from injury in Week 11, he has thrown just three interceptions but has six fumbles. According to PFF, Fields ranks 10th in turnover-worthy play rate this season.
Overall, creating takeaways has been a major issue for the Green Bay defense this season–ranking near the bottom of the NFL in that category for much of the season. As always, there are numerous contributing factors to this outcome, but inconsistent pressure on the opposing quarterback at times and a passive approach in coverage hasn’t helped.
However, against Minnesota this past Sunday, we saw a Green Bay defense that looked a lot different – in a good way, of course – than the one we had seen in previous weeks, with two turnovers being a big reason why. The Packers offense then put up 14 points following those takeaways that the defense generated.
In Week 1, the first time these teams met, the Packers controlled the game, and part of that equation was winning the turnover battle 2-0. Now, 17 weeks later, these are two very different teams, with both playing their best football.
Love will have to continue to protect the football and be mindful of his decision-making, while the Green Bay defense will have to capitalize of the turnover opportunities that come their way. A failure to do so on either side of the ball could play a big role in determining the outcome.