A professor at George Mason University has found one specific situation that Matt LaFleur, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are exploiting better than any other NFL team this season.
No one has been better on 2nd-and-short than the Packers in 2019. And it’s not even close.
Andrew Beaton of the Wall Street Journal spoke with Derek Horstmeyer, who has been studying the situational tendencies of NFL teams since 2013. And while most teams operate conservatively in the 2nd-and-short situation, the Packers have been ultra-aggressive, and ultra-productive.
According to the research, the Packers not only throw more than teams on 2nd-and-short, but they throw deep more, and those aggressive plays have been wildly successful.
Between 2013 and 2018, teams averaged 4.1 yards per play and passed the ball just 37.5 percent of plays on 2nd-and-short. The Packers are averaging 14.2 yards per play and throwing the ball on over 50 percent of 2nd-and-short plays in 2019.
Rodgers has thrown seven touchdown passes on second downs requiring three yards or fewer, including a 67-yard touchdown pass to Aaron Jones in Kansas City, a 37-yard touchdown pass to Jake Kumerow against the Oakland Raiders and a 37-yard touchdown pass to Allen Lazard in New York. He’s completed three other passes of 40 or more yards on 2nd-and-short, and all three completions set up eventual touchdowns.
Fullback Danny Vitale (27 yards) and tight end Marcedes Lewis (25) also have explosive plays on 2nd-and-short,
Rodgers’ rating when passing on 2nd-and-short is 142.3. He’s completing 80 percent of his passes and averaging 16.0 yards per attempt.
Clearly, the Packers understand the situation and the potential payoff of being aggressive. It truly is an exploitable down-and-distance for any offense, given the likelihood of converting on 3rd-and-short if the second down play doesn’t play. And it’s an opportunity for LaFleur to show a run formation, disguise the intent pre-snap and then attack down the field in the passing game.