The Green Bay Packers run defense — which has run very hot and cold this season — faces a difficult test on Sunday having to slow Justin Fields, Khalil Herbert and the Chicago Bears rushing attack.
Make no mistake about it–the Bears want to run the ball, averaging nearly 33 rush attempts per game, the second-most in football. As a team, the Bears are averaging 4.6 yards per rush, the sixth-highest rate this season. Their offensive line unit ranks second in ESPN’s run-block win rate metric.
Fields’ 116 rushing attempts this season are the second-most at the quarterback position, as are his 630 yards gained at 5.4 yards per attempt.
”It’s something that we’ve had to preach all week because you just have to stay alive with this guy constantly,” said defensive coordinator Joe Barry of Fields. “You’ve got to be conscious of your rush lane, but then feeling your buddy with his rush lane and playing off him at times. The plays never over with this guy—literally.
“It’s an element of his game that’s something you’ve got to be conscious of every single play. Definitely every time they drop back to throw the ball, but they do a great job with all of the quarterback-designed runs, where he actually is a running back. He does a great job.”
On several occasions this season, mobile quarterbacks have given the Green Bay defense fits. In Week 1, Fields rushed for 59 yards against the Packers. Justin Herbert would rush for 73 later in the season, and Tommy DeVito for 71 yards.
The Bears also boast an impressive group of running backs led by Khalil Herbert, who is averaging 4.9 yards per rush and has been very elusive, ranking 18th in average yards after contact gained.
The Bears also have Roschon Johnson averaging 4.3 yards per carry, and D’Onta Foreman — who is also heavily involved — has just one fewer explosive run than Herbert.
“I’ve always thought that kid (Herbert) was a heck of a back,” Barry said. “Even in years past when (David) Montgomery has been there. Got a lot of respect for him as a runner. They do a great job using him in the passing game, in the screen game.
“But just their scheme alone, I think it’s not only Herbert, but 23 (Johnson) has done a great job. 21 (Foreman) has come in and done a great job carrying the ball, and then obviously all the things we already talked about with Justin. They do a great job running the ball. They really do with no matter what aspect they use, whether it’s conventional runs, quarterback-designed runs.”
An added wrinkle in the run game for the Packers to contend with is that the Bears will get their receivers involved as well. Velus Jones, DJ Moore, and Tyler Scott have 19 carries between them, averaging just under six yards per attempt as a group–with each having at least one carry over 15 yards.
“I think they’ve done a great job of getting their receivers (involved),” added Barry, “whether it’s No. 12 (Jones) on fly-sweeps and all those things. They’re second in the league in rushing for a reason. It’s going to be a great challenge for us.”
Despite the recent low points experienced by the Packers’ defense as a whole over the last month, the run defense has actually held up well against running backs. Tampa Bay, as a team, averaged 3.7 yards per attempt. Carolina was at 3.8 yards collectively and Minnesota a modest 4.2 yards per attempt, with just 67 yards total.
But as we all know, and not just this season, but when it comes to run defense, things can change at a moment’s notice for the Packers. Four different times this season, they’ve surrendered 200-plus rushing yards to their opponent. Overall, the 4.5 yards per carry given up is the seventh-most.
We’ve seen the good, the bad, and the ugly from the Packers in this regard. Creating push up the middle, getting off blocks, making open field tackles, setting the edge, being in the right gaps, and being disciplined will all be important elements when it comes to trying to limit the Bears’ success on the ground. We’ve seen the Packers have success at various times in these areas, but slowing Chicago will require them to do so consistently.
“I think the consistent part of it,” said Barry, “that’s the part I’m looking for. We’ve been consistently pretty good here the last couple weeks. That’s the challenge this week, is having a team that is good running the ball, wants to run the ball, and the challenge is, let’s go stop it.”
Containing the Bears on the ground will put the offense behind the sticks and in obvious passing situations where the Packers’ pass rush can pin its ears back. Fields will enter Sunday’s game averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt and completing only 47 percent of his throws under pressure.
However, while all of that is true, prioritizing the run on one play can leave the Packers susceptible on the back end to downfield throws. While the Bears make no bones about it and want to run the ball, Fields also ranks fourth in downfield pass attempt rate this season with Moore second in targets of 20-plus yards. If the opportunity is there, the Bears offense will take their shot.
Striking that balance of when to defend the run and when to defend the pass is all part of the situational chess match and game of cat-and-mouse that will unfold as the game takes place.
“Obviously with them getting No. 2 (Moore),” said Barry, “just to see how he as fit into the offense as the weeks and months of the season have gone on. He’s a problem.”