It’s like it’s Groundhog Day.
A week ago, I wrote about how the Green Bay Packers run game was an area that had to improve coming out of Week 1. Two games in, the need for improvement remains true, and their inability to consistently move the ball on the ground against Atlanta played a key factor in their fourth-quarter collapse.
After averaging 2.9 yards on the ground against the Bears, the Packers running backs managed only 3.1 yards per rush against the Falcons, who to their credit, have a stout defensive front. In general, running lanes just have not been available, and on many instances when the Packers try to stretch the field horizontally in the run game, there is nowhere for the ball carriers to go with defenders often flying into the backfield.
As a unit, the Packers offensive line ranks 25th through two games in ESPN’s run-block win rate metric.
While success in the run game begins with the offensive line and the running backs, LaFleur mentioned last week that all 11 players have to be better in that phase of the game. He again reiterated that point on Monday when speaking with the media.
“It’s across the board with our run game,” said Matt LaFleur. “It’s our aiming points, whether you’re an offensive lineman, tight end, running back. We’ve got to be more physical at the point of attack. There’s so much that goes into it, so it’s never just on one person.”
Of course, getting Aaron Jones back will provide the run game – and the offense as a whole – with a big boost. However, while Jones was able to average 4.6 yards per rush in Week 1, that was still roughly half-a-yard less than where he finished the 2022 season at. Also, I would say that yards per carry figure, to a degree, was more of a product of Jones’ ability to create opportunities. As the overall numbers show and our eyes saw, the play of the offensive line in the run game Week 1 wasn’t all that great.
Without Jones, AJ Dillon was the Packers primary running back against Atlanta. While he was able to find some success here and there, Dillon carried the ball 15 times and averaged just 3.7 yards per carry. Because he doesn’t have the same ability to create for himself as Jones does, Dillon is a ball carrier that really needs the offensive line to open up running lanes for him to take advantage of.
He also seemed to be off-balanced on several runs and for his size, has been somewhat easy to bring down. In an effort to combat this, Dillon has spent the offseason working on running with a lower pad level.
“Certainly, I’m sure there’s some runs he would like to have back,” said LaFleur…”There’s certainly things he can do better. In terms of just being a little bit more under control. I think there’s things we got to look at, what we are asking schematically, to really enhance what he does well. Because there were some really good runs in the game.”
Green Bay’s inconsistency on the ground has had a negative trickle-down effect to the rest of offense. The team’s struggles on early downs have put them in predictable passing situations, allowing the defense to do the dictating by getting into favorable matchups. The Packers’ lack of early down success played a key role in the offense’s struggles in the fourth quarter against Atlanta, and oftentimes when they haven’t been able to move the ball.
Consistent success for the Green Bay offense this season will often begin with their ability to move the ball on the ground. Not only to keep them out of third-and-long situations, but doing so will also set up play-action and open up other opportunities in the passing game, especially in the LaFleur offense where the passing game builds off of the run-action.
However, the Packers are going to have to make these improvements with some major question marks along the left side of their offensive line. David Bakhtiari was held out of Sunday’s game with knee swelling, and Elgton Jenkins would leave in the first half with an MCL sprain. It is unknown at this time if he is going to be placed on IR, but he is expected to miss some time.
How the Packers handle Jenkins’ – and potentially Bakhtiari’s – absence is unknown and still a discussion that has to take place. They could have Royce Newman stay at left guard, which is how they finished the game on Sunday, or move Zach Tom inside with either Yosh Nijman or Rasheed Walker taking over at right tackle. All of that is still to be determined.
“I think that’s a conversation we are going to have tonight and figure out who we want to roll out there,” said LaFleur, “but it’s always a competitive situation. I don’t care what position it is. We are going to make it competitive. If guys aren’t performing, we are going to roll with someone else.”
This week the Packers play a New Orleans Saints team that is allowing 5.0 yards per rush this season and that ranks 27th in run-stop rate. But if the Packers are going to take advantage of, it’s not as much about what the Saints do, but it begins with all 11 members of the Green Bay offense being more sound and detail-oriented in the run game.
“Everything,” added LaFleur, “we are looking at everything under a microscope.”