Coming off a week in which the Atlanta Falcons ran all over the Packers, Green Bay’s defense now has to be prepared for a New Orleans Saints offense that will try to push the ball downfield in the passing game.
Through two games, Saints quarterback Derek Carr has 15 pass attempts that traveled at least 20 air yards–the most in the NFL. Those 15 throws account for nearly 22 percent of his total pass attempts, according to PFF. Carr has connected on seven of those passes, giving him a completion rate of 46.7 percent, which, for some context, would have ranked fifth over the course of the 2022 season.
“They’ve got multiple players,” said Matt LaFleur on Wednesday. “They got a lot of guys. I think Carr can sling it. He’s been doing it for years, and he’s going to give his guys opportunities. So definitely have a lot of explosive pieces that we need to make sure we limit those explosive attempts.”
On the receiving end, Chris Olave’s six targets of 20-plus yards are the third-most among wide receivers. Rashid Shaheed’s four are tied for the sixth most, and Sheheed has caught all four of those targets for 127 yards and a touchdown.
Across the NFL, in an effort to limit the explosive pass play, defenses are playing a lot of Cover-2, which provides safety help over the top. We could see the Packers try to take this approach. However, a side effect of playing two-deep safeties is potentially hurting their already questionable run defense. Every play design has pros and cons, and two-high coverages are generally susceptible to the run.
The Saints don’t have the same potent run game as Atlanta, averaging just 3.4 yards per rush attempt this season, but they have found some success between the tackles. With Olave frequently lining up in the slot, that will mean a lot of nickel personnel from the Packers, which often features only two interior defenders, potentially creating rushing opportunities for New Orleans up the middle.
Unfortunately, defenses can’t focus on taking away the run while simultaneously trying to take away the deep ball. From play to play or series to series, the Packers’ defense is going to have to pick their poison.
Green Bay’s ability to pressure Carr will go a long ways in limiting the Saints’ downfield passing game. Through two games, the Packers have been one of the best in generating quarterback pressures, tied for the most in the NFL. On the flip side, the New Orleans’ offensive line has surrendered eight sacks already and ranks 26th in pass-blocking efficiency from PFF and 28th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate metric.
On the Saints’ downfield pass attempts, which naturally come with longer developing routes, the Packers should have the opportunity to get after Carr. Steady pressure will, of course, benefit the Green Bay secondary by potentially creating errant throws, interception opportunities, and not forcing the cornerbacks and safeties to cover as long. Both of Carr’s interceptions this season have come on downfield pass attempts. In 2022, he threw the fourth-most interceptions in the NFL.
The Green Bay offense is going up against one of the better and more physical and aggressive defenses in the NFL, which could mean points are at a premium. For the Packers’ defense, limiting big plays and not falling behind is always important, but it feels like a must this week in an effort to take some of pressure off their offense, which has a difficult test.
“Every week is going to pose challenges,” said defensive coordinator Joe Barry on Wednesday, “and this week is the vertical passing game. They’ve had some explosion plays early the last two games, so that’s going to be the challenge this week obviously, is not let them get behind us and get the ball thrown over our head.”