Unlike during the first matchup between these teams, the Green Bay Packers offense is going to have to contend with Chicago Bears edge rusher Montez Sweat, who was acquired at the trade deadline midseason.
The Bears’ defensive surge over the second half of the season coincides with the addition of Sweat. As noted in the Chicago Sun Times, since his arrival, the Bears have gone from being 28th in points per game allowed to 20th. They now rank third in takeaways after ranking 22nd and are 12th in yards given up after being 23rd. Record-wise, the Bears are 5-3 with Sweat and 2-6 without him.
Bears head coach Matt Eberflus has dubbed this the “Tez effect.”
Individually, Sweat has compiled 36 pressures and eight sacks since arriving in Chicago. For the season, including his time in Washington, Sweat ranks 17th in pressures at the edge rusher position, according to PFF, and is sixth in sacks with 16.
However, to truly experience the full ‘Tez effect,’ it’s not only about Sweat’s own production, but it’s the opportunity he creates for others with the attention that he draws.
Since Week 9 when Sweat joined the team, interior defender Justin Jones’ 11 pressures are the sixth-most among that position group. Gervon Dexter has generated 20 of his 29 pressures this season with Sweat on the team, and ranks seventh in PFF’s pass rush productivity metric. Fellow edge rusher DeMarcus Walker ranks seventh in run-stop rate among his position group.
‘‘Just a big contributing factor,’’ said cornerback Jaylon Johnson via the Chicago Sun Times. ‘‘Him just coming in, bringing a different energy. Kind of indescribable. We didn’t necessarily know that we needed it until he came, and it’s like, ‘Yeah, this is somebody that we needed.”
The majority of Sweat’s snaps come lined up on the left side of the defensive line, which means if that continues, he will be matched up often with Zach Tom. This season, Tom has cemented himself as the Packers’ right tackle of the future and has faced several other top edge rushers, including Aidan Hutchinson, Maxx Crosby, TJ Watt, and Khalil Mack. Tom enters Week 18 ranked 14th in pass-blocking efficiency at the tackle position.
There will be plays when Tom has to take Sweat on one-on-one, and there will be times when the Packers may provide him some help, and it’s in those instances where other members of this Bears’ defensive front have benefitted. At various points throughout this season, the Packers’ interior offensive line, specifically Jon Runyan and Josh Myers, have had their ups and downs.
Pressure from the Bears’ front has been the catalyst behind the 18 takeaways the defense has generated in just the last seven games. This has also been one of the better run defenses in football, surrendering only 3.7 yards per carry this season–the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL.
The Packers’ success on offense over the second half of the season starts with the improved play up front. Although often not dominant, the run game has consistently generated positive plays and has really taken off in these last two games with Aaron Jones healthy, helping to open up opportunities in the passing game.
Despite Love being blitzed at the highest rate since Week 11, he’s been under pressure on just 33 percent of his dropbacks, which ranks 13th out of 42 eligible quarterbacks. That’s a credit to the offensive line but also Love’s decision-making and knowing where to go with the ball.
But, as LaFleur said this week, this Bears front is going to present a ‘challenge,’ and that is sparked by Sweat’s presence. When he’s on the field, it’s not only him that you have to worry about, but the play of everyone around him is elevated–and that is the definition of true impact.