Welcome back to our return series on offseason hypotheticals where we hypothesize a Packers’ offseason move and then analyze the implications. The introduction provides a basic foundation of important offseason dates, the sequence of player acquisition, and the Packers’ current financial situation.

Previous editions: Signing WR Robby Anderson

The NFL season formally begins in September and ends in early February, but the foundation upon which the next Super Bowl-winner is built happens in the months between February and May.

On March 18, the NFL’s new league year will begin, which means the start of free agency. The Green Bay Packers opened up the checkbook last year and signed four free agents to lucrative contracts, the impact of which will be felt this offseason.

For practical purposes, a quick overview of the Packers’ cap situation. According to Over the Cap, the Packers enter the 2020 offseason with a projected $23.7 million in cap space. They can add $12.5 million in extra space by releasing Jimmy Graham and Lane Taylor, which seems likely. Once the draft class is accounted for – as well as a contingency budget for in-season signings – the Packers are probably still looking at, conservatively, around $20 million in cap space to add additional free agents.

After free agency follows the NFL draft, which takes place from April 23-25. The Packers have 10 overall selections, which includes two sixth-rounders and three seventh-rounders. The Packers have the 30th pick of each round and own just three picks in the top 100.

Between now and free agency (or the draft), Packers Wire will periodically analyze hypotheticals regarding player acquisitions, examining the immediate impacts of adding a certain player or position and then analyzing the corresponding butterfly effect.

The hypothetical

The Packers do not agree to terms on a contract extension for right tackle Bryan Bulaga. The long-time frontside protector for Aaron Rodgers leaves Green Bay and signs a three-year, $27.5 million contract, including $20 million guaranteed, with a different NFL team. Bulaga will average just over $9 million per year, which is around where Over the Cap and Spotrac project his value.

Immediate roster implications

The Packers retain their cap space but also add another hole in need of filling. In-house options include shifting Billy Turner to right tackle and inserting Lucas Patrick or Lane Taylor (if they don’t cut him) to guard. Brian Gutekunst doesn’t like the option. While he can provide Matt LaFleur with a long-term answer in April, Gutekunst opts to sign Jared Veldheer to another one-year contract worth $1.5 million.

Some additional context to consider: ESPN’s Bill Barnwell detailed that, in the last three seasons, Aaron Rodgers’ passer rating was 11.3 points higher with Bulaga in the lineup versus his replacement; however, Rodgers’ QBR (an ESPN metric) was actually lower with Bulaga in the lineup. It’s worth noting that a handful of those games featured either Jason Spriggs or Alex Light in Bulaga’s stead, both of whom proved to be inadequate NFL linemen. Veldheer proved to be a viable reserve tackle in his lone start against the Seahawks the playoffs.

The difference between Bulaga’s hypothetical average annual value of $9 million compared to Veldheer’s $1.5 million saves the Packers $7.5 million in space, which could then be used to sign a wide receiver like Robby Anderson, whose estimated value ranges anywhere from $8 million to $12 million per year, or an even more affordable option like Tajae Sharpe. The Packers could also choose to address the hole at inside linebacker, potentially spending big for a player like Cory Littleton.

One way or another the Packers would see a talent downgrade at tackle. If the organization believes Bulaga’s body is unlikely to hold up through a third contract – at least to the degree that the contract wouldn’t provide the team with adequate value – then the Veldheer swap may be a sound decision.

Draft implications

The Packers may have seen enough from Jared Veldheer this past season to pencil him in as a one or two-year stop-gap. He’s 32 years old and his play could crater at any moment. The Packers would have to elevate their search for their long-term right tackle.

Thankfully, this draft has plenty of good ones. Many of the top tackles will likely be gone by the Packers pick at No. 30; even so, the tackle depth suggests high-quality players should be around at the end of the first-round and into Day 2. The Packers may not have to draft a tackle at No. 30, but they’ll certainly need to add one in the top-100.

The Packers have needs at inside linebacker and wide receiver, too, and there’s no guarantee the draft will fall in such a way that they’ll be able to address direct replacements at those positions while also getting their tackle of the future. Not drafting a tackle in this scenario is playing with fire. Not hitting on that draft pick, a la Jason Spriggs, could spell long-term roster doom, not unlike the back-to-back Damarious Randall-Quinten Rollins whiff.

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