It’s a task easier said than done against a team of the San Francisco 49ers’ caliber, but the Green Bay Packers have to get off to a fast start in the NFC Divisional Round on Saturday.
“I think it’s the mentality,” said offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich on Wednesday. “Coach LaFleur has been going out there and wanting the ball (after) the coin toss. When you’re on the road, it’s especially tough. If you don’t start fast, you kind of feel like you’re fighting uphill even more.”
When an offense is able to take an early lead and steadily maintain it, there’s a trickle-down effect that impacts the game in a variety of ways.
For starters, on the road, it can take the crowd out of the equation, as was the case for the Packers in Dallas.
“That first drive, that first third down, that was one of the loudest crowds I’ve ever heard,” said Stenavich. “It was deafening, couldn’t really hear anything at all. As the game went forward, the second quarter, third quarter, the crowd got really quiet.
“It helps a lot. It helps starting fast, putting 20 points on the board immediately, having their offense be in the two-minute mode, you can kind of go do whatever you want on offense to silence the crowd. That’s really important, on the road, starting fast in a playoff game, it’s a must-have really.”
As on offense, having a lead keeps the entire playbook open for Matt LaFleur, which takes away some of the bite from a pass rush and, in general, keeps the opposing defense off balanced, having to defend both the run and the pass.
Especially as the game gets deeper into the second half, the opposing offense is more likely to become one-dimensional, leaning heavily on the passing game–which gives the defense the advantage. You may also see more hurry-up or two-minute mode from the trailing offense, in an effort to score quickly, and that limits the playbook and gets them out of their game plan.
When the Baltimore Ravens were able to beat the 49ers in Week 16, the Ravens took an eight-point lead with 7:03 left in the second quarter. By the 12:07 mark in the third quarter, their lead was 11, and they maintained that double-digit lead for the rest of the game.
With the 49ers trailing, Christian McCaffrey – while still very effective – only had 14 carries. The Ravens’ pass rush, able to pin its ears back for much of the game, pressured Brock Purdy on 42 percent of his dropbacks. The 49ers playing from behind and having to play catch up also was a factor in the four interceptions Purdy threw–two of which were created by pressure.
“They got after them defensively,” said LaFleur of the Ravens, “no question about it. They had a couple fortunate interceptions off batted balls, and they just harassed him in the pocket. They did a good job stopping the run, and they built a lead.”
Up until the second half of this season, LaFleur has preferred to start the game out on defense when winning the coin toss. However, against Minnesota and Dallas recently, two tough road environments, and in Dallas, facing an offense that led the NFL in scoring, LaFleur chose to receive the opening kickoff with the hope of taking an early lead.
“I think every game is a little different,” said LaFleur on Monday. “There’s a lot of gut feel, I would say in that. I just think playing against a team like the Cowboys, as explosive as they’ve been offensively, and what they’ve been able to do defensively as well, I thought it was best in that particular game to try to manufacture a scoring drive and try to get up on them early. Our guys were able to go out there and execute.”
If the Packers win the toss in San Francisco, I expect them to receive for many of the reasons that LaFleur just mentioned. Being able to get off to a fast start and play with a lead is a must against the super-charged 49ers offense.
On the flip side, the opposite is true if the Packers fall behind. If the 49ers jump out to an early lead, it can put the Packers’ offense in two-minute mode, limit their ability to run the ball, and force the offensive line and Jordan Love to deal with the 49ers’ defensive front that doesn’t need any help wreaking havoc, but will have the advantage if the Packers become pass-heavy.
The Packers’ offense is red-hot right now, and fast starts have been a key part of that equation. Against Dallas, the Packers jumped out to a 20-0 lead. Versus Minnesota, they were up 23-3, and against Carolina, the Packers led 23-10 at one point.
However, this week, taking an early lead and maintaining it against the 49ers is a different kind of challenge, and doing so feels like a must if the Packers are going to have any chance of pulling off another upset. Playing from behind likely won’t end well.
“Last week,” said Jon Runyan, “someone asked me a question about just kind of what we changed when we hit that (stretch) where we weren’t having a lot of success. And the one thing, obviously we were not doing a very good job coming out and starting games. I can’t remember what it was, but we didn’t score a touchdown in the first half in a couple games, which is bad.
“So, we changed our approach and really focused on just making sure everything we were doing in practice was about starting fast and things like that, so we really emphasized it in practice, we emphasized it in meetings, and I think the guys, that eventually caught on and we’ve had a lot more success.”