The decline of the Green Bay Packers’ pass-rush in 2020 involves many factors, but a lack of production from outside linebacker Preston Smith is certainly one of the headlining acts.
Smith, who finished with 55 pressures and 12.0 sacks for the Packers a year ago, has just seven pressures and a half-sack through five games to start 2020.
After five games last season, Smith had 24 pressures, including 5.5 sacks and 10 quarterback hits. Of his seven pressures in 2020, only two have involved hitting the quarterback.
Playing time and role aren’t to blame. Smith has been on the field for 87 percent of the defense’s snaps in 2020, up three percent from last season. And he’s dropped into coverage 51 times, the exact number he dropped through five games last season.
Smith just isn’t affecting the passer. Pro Football Focus tracks a stat called “Pass Rushing Productivity,” which measures pressure rate per snap, weighted toward sacks. Among the 60 edge rushers with at least 100 pass-rushing snaps this season, Smith ranks 56th in Pass Rushing Productivity. He was 14th last season.
The decline in Smith’s pass-rushing production reflects a worrying trend for the 2020 Packers. Mike Pettine’s defense isn’t pressuring quarterbacks at nearly the same rate or volume as last season.
Preston Smith, Za’Darius Smith and Kenny Clark have just 20 combined pressures in five games. Clark missed 3.5 games with a groin injury and still doesn’t have a pressure. Za’Darius Smith, who led the NFL in total pressures in 2019, has just 13 over the first five games. Together, the three combined for over 200 total pressures last season.
The Packers had over 300 total pressures in 2019 but are on pace for just 169 in 2020.
According to ESPN, the Packers rank 29th in the NFL in Pass Rush Win Rate at 34 percent. The top five teams in the rankings are all over 50 percent.
It can probably be assumed that Za’Darius Smith and Kenny Clark will eventually reassert themselves as difference-makers. They are too talented and too versatile as pass-rushing weapons to be held down for long. But the Packers are a defense built around disruption, and fully unlocking the pass-rush will require more from Preston Smith.
The final 11 games of 2020 will be important for No. 91. He has a $4 million roster bonus in March, on the third league day of 2021. The Packers are going to have tough financial decisions to make this spring, and releasing or trading Preston Smith could provide some relief. His cap hit is scheduled to be $16 million in 2021. The Packers want that decision to be a tough one in March. Smith isn’t making it any harder to start 2020.