The Green Bay Packers will likely need three players who stood out over small sample sizes during the 2019 season to step up and star once again in bigger roles in 2020.
There’s one player for each phase of the game: receiver Allen Lazard, cornerback Chandon Sullivan and returner Tyler Ervin.
Lazard, Sullivan and Ervin are all favorites to play an important role for Matt LaFleur’s team in 2020.
For Lazard, an opportunity to become the No. 2 receiver behind Davante Adams is wide open and available. Undrafted in 2018 and cut by the Packers before the start of the regular season last year, Lazard made his way back onto the active roster and eventually broke out in October, providing another effective option in the passing game.
Lazard played only 479 total snaps but still finished second on the team in receiving yards.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers called Lazard an “ascending” player who made big plays in big moments. LaFleur mentioned him first nearly every time a receiver question was asked this offseason. And the numbers from his 2019 season are nothing if not encouraging.
These figures are from our Packers Wire post in May:
– Lazard caught 67.3 percent of his targets and averaged 9.2 yards per target
– Rodgers had a passer rating of 115.6 when targeting Lazard
– Lazard produced 12 third-down conversions on just 35 catches
– Lazard ranked 18th among all qualifying receivers in the NFL in DVOA, a metric developed by Football Outsiders that compares the per-play value of a player to the average player at the position
– Lazard averaged 1.62 yards per route run, per Pro Football Focus, ranking 44th among qualifying receivers
– Lazard’s overall receiving grade at PFF ranked 51st among all receivers
– Among receivers with at least 40 targets in 2019, Lazard ranked 12th in passer rating when targeted (117.9), per PFF
– All three of Lazard’s touchdowns were over 20 yards, including two on third down
Lazard’s primary competition for snaps opposite Adams will come from third-year receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling and veteran addition Devin Funchess. Valdes-Scantling is a vertical threat but mostly one-dimensional as a receiver, while Funchess is a similar player as Lazard but with more established flaws. The Packers will likely be more versatile in both formations and personnel in 2020, but Lazard will have a real chance to play 700 or more snaps and see at least 70 targets as the No. 2 receiver.
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On defense, the absence of veteran cornerback Tramon Williams – who remains unsigned – has left the door open for Sullivan to take over as the defense’s primary slot cornerback. It’s a big job. In today’s NFL, it’s a starting job. Even at age 36, Williams played almost 800 total snaps during the regular season.
Sullivan’s emergence during the 2019 season might have provided the Packers with confidence that he can handle the slot role in 2020.
He played 350 defensive snaps and was terrific in coverage, allowing completions on just 35.5 percent of targets while breaking up seven passes and intercepting one. Opposing quarterbacks averaged 3.9 yards per attempt and had a passer rating of 34.3 when targeting Sullivan in 2019.
Again, the sample size was small. He faced only 31 total targets. But Mike Pettine plugged him in all over – mostly in the slot but also out wide and at free safety – and Sullivan still earned the fourth-highest coverage grade on the team, according to Pro Football Focus.
He has decent size and excellent burst, and he flashed the kind of instincts all slot cornerbacks need to survive. Spending an entire year in the same room as Williams no doubt helped develop some of these instincts. In 2020, Sullivan may need to assume Williams’ role and become the Packers’ third starting cornerback. And he’ll need to do it for a defense that should be ready to take a step and become one of the NFL’s best, especially against the pass. It might only be possible if Sullivan can handle being a full-time player.
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On special teams, Ervin should get the first crack at being the Packers’ punt and kick returner, a role he thrived in to end the 2019 season. Just when the team’s return units looked dead, Ervin arrived off waivers and shocked the entire operation back to life. He returned 11 punts for 106 yards – pulling the Packers back above zero for the season – and six kicks for 160 yards, including a 45-yarder. Ervin isn’t a flashy returner, but he catches the football consistently, gets up the field in a hurry and understands how to manipulate blocks and angles.
Also, LaFleur and the Packers offense liked using Ervin as a gadget player, especially over the last few games of last year. He added value on jet sweeps and in the screen game, both when he had the ball and when he was used as a decoy. LaFleur believes he’s explosive, and his return skills work to his advantage on gadget plays.
It’s unclear who the Packers would use on returns if Ervin isn’t the guy. His roster spot might not be guaranteed, but it would be surprising if he doesn’t make the team as a reserve running back and the top returner. A full year of having Ervin return punts and kicks could provide a significant boost to the special teams.
The worry here is that small sample sizes can be deceiving. A player can stand out over a limited number of plays only to be exposed as a replacement-level option once the volume of workload ramps up and the rest of the NFL catches up. It happens all the time. It’s certainly possible Lazard won’t be as efficient as a receiver, Sullivan won’t be as sticky in coverage and Ervin won’t be as impactful as a returner. In fact, it’s probably likely that at least one of those three things will happen in 2020.
Still, the Packers are certainly banking on the trio of young standouts returning in 2020 and making the most out of bigger roles earned last season. With important jobs on the line, Lazard, Sullivan and Ervin have a chance to help power internal improvement this season or be part of the reason why some level of regression is probably unavoidable for LaFleur’s team.
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