At 3-6 and with their playoff hopes essentially dashed, the Green Bay Packers find themselves where no football team wants to be. A lack of identity on offense has been the main culprit in getting them to this point, and there is no clear path back to winning football.
An identity in football gives the team something to lean on when things get tough, or if that team is in a high-leverage situation and in need of a conversion or a score. The Packers, however, have been in search of that all season long.
A big part of that identity should be Aaron Jones, who is Green Bay’s one true playmaker. But for whatever reason, there is a reluctance to get him the ball with any regularity. How often have we seen Matt LaFleur standing in front of the media after a game, telling reporters how he has to do a better job of getting Jones involved? Before leaving this most recent game against Detroit with an ankle injury, Jones had just 11 touches through three and a half quarters. He had only five at halftime.
Admittedly, running the ball hasn’t always been the easiest this season for the Packers, with the blocking being inconsistent due to all of the movement on the offensive line, and when trailing as the Packers often are, especially by two-plus scores, leaning heavily on the run game isn’t the best way to get back into the game. With that said, Jones is an effective pass-catcher as well, and regardless of how the opponent is defending Green Bay, LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers need to get him touches. There are zero reasons Jones shouldn’t have 20 or more touches each week.
Schematically, the Packers are lost in the middle of an offense that is trying to blend what LaFleur wants to run along with what Rodgers is comfortable with. This isn’t new by any means, and it is something the Packers have done since LaFleur arrived. However, as things get progressively worse each week, the offense appears to be trending much closer toward the late Mike McCarthy-era Packers rather than what LaFleur’s system is predicated on.
For a team lacking consistency at the receiver position, the Packers ran quite a bit of five wide looks against Detroit – basically telling the pass catchers to go win their matchup or Rodgers will throw them open. The big problem with this is that these receivers aren’t winning with regularity, and this is no longer MVP Rodgers at quarterback.
On top of that, there’s the battle of motion vs. no motion. Lining up in shotgun instead of under center. Playing up-tempo vs. huddling up every play, along with a lack of bunch formations, play-action, and oftentimes, a head-scratching lack of balance between the running and passing games. Rodgers, of course, prefers no motion, playing out of shotgun, and wants a faster pace between plays. The rest are all core concepts of the LaFleur system.
These issues on offense and the overall lack of identity lead to a bigger question – and problem – for the Packers, how do they get out of this mess?
Unfortunately, there is no cure-all or magic answer. They either continue down the current path that is leading to nowhere, or things get potentially messy following the season.
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This past offseason, the Packers had the opportunity to trade Rodgers for a massive haul of draft picks, and while, yes, they would be taking a step back, the retooling process would have been accelerated in comparison to where they are now. There wouldn’t be a record-setting quarterback contract on the books, the Packers possibly don’t make other free agent signings, such as bringing back Rasul Douglas and/or De’Vondre Campbell, giving them more cap space in 2023, and they would have a real opportunity to evaluate Jordan Love, along with having several premium draft picks at their disposal.
Hindsight is certainly 20/20 in this instance and looking back, it’s easy to see why Brian Gutekunst wanted to keep the window open. Green Bay had won 13 games three seasons in a row, Rodgers was coming off back-to-back MVPs, and the NFC was seemingly wide open, increasing the odds of making a playoff run. The Packers aren’t the first to try to extend a championship window, and the results that we are seeing on the football field are common in this type of endeavor, although I imagine it’s happening much quicker than expected.
Next offseason, Over the Cap projects that the Packers will have just $3.5 million in available cap space, even with the salary cap expected to explode. And while there are cap-saving moves that can be made, Green Bay is once again not in a great position to be spending free agent dollars.
Ken Ingalls, who independently tracks the Packers’ salary cap, points out that Rodgers is in store for a nearly $18 million raise in 2023, bringing his total cash close to $60 million with most of it guaranteed. His cap hit if on the team is $31.6 million and continues to increase each season.
If Rodgers retires prior to June 1st, 2023, the Packers take a $40.3 million dead cap hit, meaning that amount of money is still on the books even without him not on the team. They are, however, free from his contract in 2024. If Rodgers retires after June 1st, that dead cap hit is just $15.8 million in 2023 and then $24.5 million in 2024, according to Ingalls. But because Green Bay would have to keep his contract on the books until June 2nd, that affects their ability to spend in free agency in 2023.
I suppose the Packers could look to trade Rodgers, although that still comes with significant cap hits for them, and wouldn’t take place until after June 1st because of said cap hits, which limits their ability to spend and utilize any return compensation in 2023. Green Bay would also likely receive a potentially significant reduction in draft picks compared to this past offseason. I’m also not sure how many teams would be willing to take on that massive contract given Rodgers’ play along with him flirting with retirement each year – although, as they say, it takes just one team.
Considering what we’ve seen from the Packers this season, trying to run it back again with Rodgers seems futile. They don’t have the money to spend in free agency, and while some early-round selections will be helpful, the issues that this team is experiencing go beyond the personnel. As currently constructed and with how the offense is being run, it’s difficult to see a path back to being a Super Bowl contender.
Eventually, when the Packers are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, LaFleur is going to face the difficult decision of whether or not to bench Rodgers so that Green Bay can get an extended look at Love, who is eligible for a fifth-year option in the spring. When I say difficult, I believe it will be a difficult choice for the Packers to make, given Rodgers’ stature within the organization. But from a pure football perspective, they should absolutely use that opportunity to take a closer look at Love, who is still a relative unknown with his lack of in-game experience.
I’m not sure what lies ahead for the Packers, and I’m not sure if Green Bay does either right now. If Rodgers wants to continue playing beyond 2022, the weight of his contract makes moving him or continuing to build around him a challenge – that’s simply a massive amount of cap space to be sinking into a quarterback who has drastically underperformed. Green Bay’s only real hope of turning things around in this scenario would be Rodgers and LaFleur reworking the offense.
The other alternative is if Rodgers does choose to retire, we could see the Packers enter a true rebuild mode as they get out of several contracts, take on a heavy dose of dead cap hits, as they reset their books after several years of pushing cap charges to the future, and perhaps begin looking for their newest quarterback if they aren’t satisfied with Love. Changes to the coaching staff would likely follow as well. Given the two options, this may be the desired route by many with the Packers currently in no man’s land, but a rebuild certainly does not guarantee eventual success either, as many NFL teams have been stuck in this world for a number of years.
What I wouldn’t expect from this potential rebuild, however, is changes made at the GM and head coaching positions, with Brian Gutekunst and LaFleur having just signed extensions that are fully guaranteed.
There are no guarantees of eventual success and this approach likely won’t lead to a pretty 2023 football season, but at least there will be some direction, which is lacking right now.
Six months ago, the Packers found themselves at a crossroads between beginning an accelerated rebuild or trying to keep the championship window open. Green Bay chose the latter. They now find themselves at a crossroads once again; unfortunately this time, the paths aren’t so clear.
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