The emergence of quarterback Jordan Love, the late-season surge of Matt LaFleur’s team in 2023 and a young, improving roster has the Green Bay Packers well-positioned as one of the NFL’s potential surprise Super Bowl contenders in 2024.
Bill Barnwell of ESPN went in depth on the “trendy Super Bowl pick” exercise and identified three such teams entering this season: the Detroit Lions, Houston Texans and Packers. Barnwell’s criteria included exceeding expectations the year prior, competitiveness in the playoffs the year prior and an improving young quarterback.
The Texans hit every criteria. The Packers and Lions weren’t perfect candidates in Barnwell’s eyes but still qualified based on the strength of other factors, including the value of young, talent-filled rosters.
How did past trendy teams fare? Many missed the postseason altogether, providing a case study in why progression — both individually and as a team — isn’t necessarily linear. The Packers aren’t guaranteed to be better in 2024 — including from a record standpoint — just because they finished the 2023 season red hot and added more talent this offseason. LaFleur has stressed this fact over and over this offseason — nothing will be handed to the Packers based on last year. The same could be said about Love, who was arguably the best quarterback in football during the second half of 2023. He must take a developmental step forward in his second year as a starter for the Packers to truly take off.
While the playoffs are far from guaranteed in Green Bay, Barnwell found that many of the trendy Super Bowl teams emerged as legitimate contenders and either advanced to the conference title game or Super Bowl. Barnwell felt optimistic about all three teams — the Texans, Lions and Packers — based on his evaluation of the sustainability of what the three teams have built as emerging contenders.
“Winning a title in the NFL is tough, and progress isn’t linear,” Barnwell wrote. “For every team like the Rams that knocks on the door and keeps pushing before eventually breaking through, there’s a team like the 2017 Eagles or 2020 Buccaneers that makes a sudden leap forward and wins. I’ll keep picking the Chiefs, but after taking a closer look, I wouldn’t fault anyone for jumping on the bandwagons of the Lions, Packers or Texans in 2024.”