The Green Bay Packers front seven is going to face a difficult task this week, having to go up against the Detroit Lions offensive line. Defensive coordinator Joe Barry called it “arguably one of the best offensive lines, if not the best offensive line in football.”
Since the Lions last played the Packers, they’ve posted a record of 6-2, and during that span, Jared Goff has been pressured on just 27% of his dropbacks, according to PFF, the seventh-lowest rate in football. In the run game, the Lions’ offensive line ranks sixth in adjusted line yards by Football Outsiders, which takes into account the offensive line’s contributions to the rushing yards gained by the running backs.
Green Bay, meanwhile, has had inconsistent play within their front seven, both in terms of getting after the quarterback and stopping the run. The 246 total pressures that they’ve accumulated this season ranks 22nd in the NFL, while the 5.0 yards per rush they’re allowing ranks 27th, and their run defense as a whole is ranked 31st by DVOA.
With that said, and to their credit, the Packers have been better in each phase of the game as of late. With Green Bay playing more Cover-6 looks, which puts an extra defender in the secondary, quarterbacks have frequently been holding on to the ball a bit longer as they look for a place to go with it. That extra half-second can make a world of difference for a pass-rusher when it comes to getting home, and as a result, we’ve seen more steady pressure from the Packers as of late.
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In the run game, the Packers held Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison to 3.8 yards per carry. Then in Miami, following Raheem Mostert’s initial 17-yard run, he was held to just 28 yards on seven additional carries, with Jeff Wilson averaging barely over 4.0 yards per attempt. As a team, Los Angeles would average 4.2 yards per carry against the Packers, which over the course of a season, would rank 25th.
“I would say that I thought we did a really, really good job up front defeating blocks,” said Matt LaFleur of the run defense following the win over the Vikings. “I think we’ve been tackling a heck of a lot better than at certain times throughout the course of the season. And then I really think the physicality and playstyle just felt different, and quite frankly, I thought it looked different too.”
Behind that stout Lions’ offensive line is a high-powered offense that can put up points awfully quickly. Running back D’Andre Swift has been one of the most explosive running backs in football, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, along with the physical Jamaal Williams, who leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns, to complement him. At receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown is 11th in total receiving yards and one of the best at picking up YAC this season, and joining him, are downfield threats DJ Chark and Jameson Williams, who can stretch the field.
In Week 9, the Packers defense held the Lions to just 15 points but they still didn’t generate regular pressure, with Goff being pressured only 11 times or on 30% of his dropbacks. They did, however, hold Williams to just 3.4 yards per rush on 24 attempts. But this time around with Chark and Jameson Williams back in the mix, the Packers may not be as willing to put more defenders near the line of scrimmage with their home run abilities to contend with.
The Green Bay defense has feasted off turnovers as of late, generating 12 in their last four games. Goff, on the other hand, has done a terrific job protecting the football, with his last interception coming in Week 9 against the Packers. However, for the season, his 10 turnover-worthy passes, when under pressure, are the 10th most in football. As is often the case, pressure can lead to turnover opportunities, although against this Lions front, that’s easier said than done.
Over the last two games, we’ve seen the Packers really try to take the passing game away first, given that they were going up against Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Justin Jefferson, along with the Vikings and Dolphins averaging the fewest and second-fewest rush attempts per game. But Detroit is a much more balanced team when it comes to run-pass mix, ranking 11th in both pass and rush attempts per game – so the Packers defensive approach will likely have to vary a bit.
As is often the case, the play in the trenches will play a major role in determining how this game goes. It won’t be easy against this Detroit front-five, but if the Packers are going to slow their high-scoring offense, winning at the line of scrimmage is where it begins.
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