Whatever the plan was for the Packers this offseason, it appears to be a divergence from whatever we saw a season ago.
Just a season removed from an NFC Championship appearance, it looked like the Packers were primed to add a few pieces necessary to make some incremental improvement, enough to make the Packers competitive with the top of the NFC.
Now through the first two days of the draft, it’s clear that head coach Matt LaFleur is driving the bus.
The Packers stunned its fanbase when they traded up in the first round on Thursday night to draft Aaron Rodgers’ assumed successor, Utah State quarterback Jordan Love.
Then, the Packers surprised again in Round 2. With clear needs for a developmental tackle, an off-ball linebacker, and a wide receiver, and with Houston offensive tackle Josh Jones, Wisconsin linebacker Zack Baun, and South Carolina wide receiver Bryan Edwards (among a few others) available, the Packers selected Boston College running back A.J. Dillon, whom The Athletic’s Dane Brugler ranked as his 12th running back (PFF didn’t even rank Dillon, seeing his skillset as too limited for the modern game). In the second round, it’s safe to say this was a reach. They finished their Friday night in the third round by drafting Cincinnati tight end Josiah Deguara, of whom NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein has a sixth-round grade.
In other words, the Packers’ plan just doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Let’s pause for a second to add an important caveat: we don’t know if these players will pan out. Generally speaking, drafting for the best player available regardless of need is a sound strategy over time.
The real critique to make right now is about the sequence of the decisions.
When Brian Gutekunst was first hired, he had finally brought in outside free agents to add some competence to a roster that simply hadn’t been up to par. A disappointing 2018 season led to McCarthy’s firing, which prompted both an unprecedented offseason spending spree to quickly rebuild the defense and a new coaching staff to revitalized a sleepy offense. It wasn’t a rebuild, technically, it was a re-load, a final push to craft a Super Bowl-caliber roster with Aaron Rodgers under center. To punctuate the “all in” mantra, the team extended Rodgers to the tune of $134 million, ensuring he would be in Green and Gold until 2023.
Or so we thought.
When the Packers gave Rodgers the bag, they more or less committed to him through the 2022 season given the way the guaranteed money was structured. Then the team decided to restructure Rodgers’ contract in December of 2019 to add cap to spend on free agents in March of this year. For all intents and purposes, they doubled-down. It was Rodgers or bust for at least the next three years.
The Packers made it all the way the NFC Championship Game this past season, but it was clear they were a tier below San Francisco. They needed to get better, and one of the ways to add talent where the Packers struggled –receiver.
Which brings us to Thursday night, where they relinquished a fourth-round pick to move up a few spots to draft Love. Quarterback is the premium position, so Gutekunst’s decision is defensible, but the sequence of events in which the selection happened is much less so.
If the Packers let Rodgers start next year and trade him after the season, the team will have to eat $31.5 million in dead cap. If they trade or release him after the 2021 season, they’ll eat $17 million. It wouldn’t be until Jordan Love’s third year where it makes sense to get out from under Rodgers’ contract and hand the reins to Love.
The biggest competitive advantage in professional football is having a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract. In a salary capped league, a fixed-cost rookie contract at the quarterback position is a tremendous market inefficiency smart teams (see 2019 Cheifs, 2013 Seahawks, and to some degree the 2018 Rams).
So what about A.J. Dillon?
With both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams set to be free agents after next season, the Packers needed at least one viable replacement, but both Jones and Williams were fifth and fourth-round picks, respectively. Due to the way running backs are undervalued, good ones can be found much deeper into the draft. The Packers using a second-round pick to a running back is poor value and yet another head-scratching decision for a team that had much bigger roster holes elsewhere. Moreover, it’s well-documented that the running back position’s success is incumbent on so many factors outside of the individual running back’s control, which is why it’s hard to justify using a high pick on one unless your team has few other clear needs or depth concerns. The Packers did not have that luxury this year.
Between Love, Dillon, and third-round tight end Josiah Deguara, it’s evident that LaFleur has put in a formal request to his general manager to get him “his” guys on offense. In Tennesse, LaFleur feasted on Derrick Henry’s ability to gash defenses on the ground, an approach and system that required two competent tight ends. The Packers’ approach is clear, but the results and the value are questionable at best.
At 36, the sun is setting on Rodgers’ career. A year ago it looked like the team was going to do everything in its power to convert that last remaining sunlight into productive energy. One year the plan is less clear.
All three of these players may pan out, and if the Packers find yet another quarterback gem in Jordan Love, all will be forgotten. Even so, if this team is to make a run in Rodgers’ dwindling years in green and gold, it’s looking more and more Sisyphean.
The team on his back again, Aaron Rodgers has a fresh chip on his shoulder.