Third down will play a huge factor in determining the winner of Sunday’s NFC Divisional Round matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks.
More specifically, the Packers defense needs to be great on the pivotal down against a Seahawks offense that been terrific against two of the NFL’s best defenses the last two games.
Not only have the Seahawks converted first downs, but they’ve created big plays.
In games against the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles, the Seahawks converted 16 total third downs – eight against the 49ers in Week 17, and eight more on Sunday in Philadelphia. The 49ers are the NFL’s second-best third-down defense; the Eagles are fourth.
The Packers defense finished the regular-season ranked 15th in the NFL on third down. However, over the final five games, the Packers gave up first downs on just 34.5 percent of third downs, which ranked as the sixth-best mark in the league.
Facing Wilson, an All-Pro, will provide a unique challenge.
He was terrific for the Seahawks on third down over the last two weeks, creating all 16 first downs either by passing or running. He completed 16 of 24 passes for 246 yards, one touchdown and 14 first downs, and he rushed three times for 22 yards and two more first downs.
He was especially effective against the Eagles. He completed six passes gaining at least 19 yards, including a stunning 38-yard conversion to David Moore that set up a touchdown in the first half and three completions to rookie D.K. Metcalf over 20 yards. He rushed for a key first down on 3rd-and-15 and all but ended the game with a 36-yard bomb to Metcalf on 3rd-and-10 with under two minutes left.
Two targets have done the majority of the damage. Together, Metcalf and Tyler Lockett saw 13 targets the last two games and converted eight first downs. Metcalf turned all four of his catches into first downs, while Lockett had five catches and four first downs.
| Player | Targets | Catches | Yards | First downs |
| Tyler Lockett | 7 | 5 | 45 | 4 |
| D.K. Metcalf | 6 | 4 | 96 | 4 |
| Jacob Hollister | 4 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| David Moore | 4 | 2 | 57 | 2 |
| Travis Homer | 2 | 2 | 14 | 2 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The Packers will likely match Jaire Alexander against Lockett and Kevin King against Metcalf, potentially creating an outstanding set of matchups in the passing game on high-leverage downs.
Wilson’s legs provide another challenge. Even if the Packers cover up the receivers and pressure Wilson out of the pocket, he’s fast enough and athletic enough to escape and gain big chunks of yards with his legs.
Most dangerously, the Packers have to be prepared to stay sticky in coverage when Wilson escapes pressure and buys time. He can create magic on extended plays, as both the 49ers and Eagles found out.
Take two examples from Sunday in Philadelphia. In the first half, Wilson bought time to his right and found Metcalf on a clever pass in the scramble drill for 24 yards on 3rd-and-10. Later in the half, he danced around pressure and somehow delivered a strike to Moore, who came back to the ball and circled around the defender for 38 yards, setting up a touchdown.
Even blitzing Wilson is dangerous. The Eagles brought a Cover-0 blitz on 3rd-and-10 with the game on the line. There was no safety deep, and Malcolm Jenkins served as a spy on Wilson to negate a scramble. He still delivered a perfect deep ball to Metcalf behind the coverage for 36 yards to clinch the win.
Getting the Seahawks into third-and-long will be key, but even then they were effective. Despite facing 15 third downs needing eight or more yards, the Seahawks still converted eight first downs. And one of the misses was a kneel-down to end Sunday’s win.
Mike Pettine and the Packers will be tested on third down. They need to consistently disrupt the pocket, pinch underneath passing lanes, take away deep shots and keep Wilson from breaking contain and taking off into the open field. It’s a lot to ask. Even the best defenses have struggled the past two weeks.