On the ground or through the air, the San Francisco 49ers offense has been incredibly effective this season, which is likely to create a multitude of issues for the Green Bay Packers defense.
Running back Christian McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing with 1,459 yards at 5.4 yards per attempt. As an offense, the Niners led the NFL in plays of 20-plus yards.
Quarterback Brock Purdy led the NFL in yards per pass attempt despite ranking 20th in pass attempts of 20 or more yards. This was accomplished, in part, by Purdy being the most efficient quarterback on downfield passes, along with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, all ranking among the best in their position groups in yards after the catch.
“Certainly, we know we are going against one of the elite teams in the NFL,” said Matt LaFleur. “Certainly, the class of the NFC. They’ve got a lot of the same players that they’ve had for a few years now, and they’ve added some other freak shows over there.”
As good as the Niners are in these individual areas, the added stressor to all of this for the Packers’ defense is how these different elements work together.
On any one given play, a defense can’t try to take away both the run and the pass. They have to choose. And even in choosing to defend the pass, do you protect against the downfield throw, leaving opportunities underneath for YAC? Or muddying things up over the middle on short to intermediate routes, knowing you could be exposed over the top?
Attempting to limit the run game with more defenders close to the line of scrimmage leaves you susceptible in the passing game. Conversely, trying to limit the opponent through the air, which can often include utilizing shell coverages, leaves a defense exposed to the run game.
That’s all part of the chess match that unfolds during a football game. Based on the situation, how the game has unfolded, and past tendencies that the offense may have, the defensive play call will lean more towards either taking away the run or the pass based on those factors and more.
However, the issue with facing this 49ers offense is that even if the right play call is dialed up, they have the playmakers to still beat the defense. Or if the defense is well positioned to limit the pass, they’ll take advantage of opponents in the run game, and vice versa.
Any sort of potential success for the Packers’ defense begins up front in containing the run game and getting after Purdy.
If McCaffrey is able to run wild, as he often has, putting the 49ers offense in short down-and-distance situations, everything previously discussed becomes magnified because Kyle Shanahan will have the entire playbook at his disposal.
For what it’s worth, the Packers’ run defense has held opponents to under four yards per carry since Week 15–although McCaffrey and the Niners are a different beast.
Pressuring Purdy will be a must as well to disrupt the timing of the play and to get him off his spot–however, that doesn’t guarantee success either, with Purday ranking second in completion rate when under duress. But the alternative is asking the Packers secondary to regularly defend these 49ers’ pass-catchers for four-plus seconds is not a recipe for success.
Overall, the Packers rank sixth in pressure rate this season and 16th in sacks. The interior defensive line has been playing some of its best football in recent weeks, and that will have to continue.
Then there are the “little” things like swarming to the ball carrier, limiting missed tackles and YAC opportunities, along with being assignment sound. The 49ers have shown they can put up yards and points–they don’t need any help from self-inflicted errors by the Green Bay defense.
In the last three games, we’ve seen a much more productive and cohesive Packers defense. In part, it’s because of schematic changes made, which include more creative blitzes and the disguising of coverages to provide different looks.
“I couldn’t be happier,” said LaFleur of the defense’s recent performances. “I know what Joe Barry is all about and I couldn’t be happier. Just the resiliency. There’s tough moments and there’s tough moments in every season. I know what we have in him and was confident if anyone could right the ship so to speak it was him.”
Attempting to contain this Niners offense will likely require a more out-of-the-box approach and breaking away from what the Packers’ defensive norms have been. There is no perfect answer going against this offense because they are so efficient in all areas. You make the best play call you can; the players need to execute it to the best of their abilities, and to a degree, you hang on.