The 2019 season was almost magical for the Green Bay Packers. Unfortunately, they took advantage of the open bar and forgot to find the glass slipper at the eleventh hour.
No, the Packers didn’t make the Super Bowl. If pre-season expectations were any barometer, however, the Packers most certainly overperformed.
According to ESPN, the Packers entered the season projected to win 8.5 games. Coming off a 6-9-1 season with a rookie head coach, it was hard to argue with much conviction otherwise.
Then the stars aligned, beginning with a remarkably healthy roster.
Bob McGinn, writing for The Athletic, tallied the Packers’ injury luck relative to their opponent. Though 12 games, he estimated that the Packers, “have had eight games missed by starters due to injury: four by Davante Adams, two by Darnell Savage and two by Taylor. In comparison, their 12 opponents had 38 starters missing when they played the Packers.”
Green Bay also missed Dalvin Cook in Week 16 and Matthew Stafford in Week 17 and received a gimpy version of Giants running back Saquan Barkley in Week 13.
The second domino to fall was some scheduling luck. The Lions fell apart. The NFC East proved fraudulent. The Bears regressed. Patrick Mahomes was hurt. The Cowboys didn’t have key starters along the offensive line. The list goes on.
In the end, the Packers won a bunch of games – heck, you can only play to your schedule – but they also lacked the aesthetics. The Packers’ “win ugly” mantra only works until it doesn’t; the eke-’em-out victories the Packers relied upon throughout the season were merely foreshadowing for a darker prophecy – a second beatdown in San Francisco.
The evidence was always there, however. According to Chase Stuart of Football Perspective, the Packers were one of the most “clutch” teams in NFL history, going 8-1 in games decided by eight points or fewer. Additionally, their plus-63 point differential placed them within the bottom tier of playoff teams. Combined with their unusually lucky health, the Packers were just a slightly-above-average team finding ways to win, but those teams rarely make Super Bowls.
So what does this all mean? Well, prepare for regression for one. The Packers aren’t going to be this healthy next year. They’re also not going to win as many one-score games. Those flukey matchups, like the Lions game with the Trey Flowers illegal hands to the face penalty, might not swing Green Bay’s favor next year.
Don’t fret, though. The Packers may not win 13 games next year. In fact, it’s more improbable than not; however, they’re entering Year 2 with their new head coach. Their young core has another year within the system, and the Packers secondary, buttressed by Jaire Alexander, Kevin King, and Darnell Savage, is only getting more experienced. Rashan Gary should find his way into the rotation, and Jace Sternberger gives the Packers an immediate upgrade at the tight end position. It’s also likely the Packers will address some of their bigger roster holes this offseason, too.
Aaron Rodgers may not be the player he was three or four years ago, but he still has a strong enough arm and can, should he be given more weapons, elevate the offense beyond what we saw this season. Greater comfort combined with talent infusion will, in theory, make this team a tougher out in January.
While the Packers may lose a couple more games in 2020, their point differential might actually improve, which is a more telling barometer of a Super Bowl-caliber team anyhow.
2020 is the window. Time to get drafty.
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