The Green Bay Packers will have an opportunity to showcase an improved run defense against the NFL’s most intimidating and productive running back when Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans arrive at Lambeau Field for a primetime clash on Sunday night.
Henry leads the NFL in rushing yards at 1,679 and still has an outside shot at getting to 2,000 total rushing yards over the final two games. The Packers, while giving up fewer total rushing yards this season, are still allowing 4.5 yards per carry in 2020, so Henry’s arrival will shine the spotlight directly on the ability of Mike Pettine’s defense to handle a top running back.
But for as dangerous as Henry is, the Packers can’t shift too much focus to stopping one player.
The Titans are more than just a power-run offense. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, who worked under Packers coach Matt LaFleur, has crafted a devastatingly effective play-action passing game that deserves just as much attention as Henry.
According to Pro Football Focus, quarterback Ryan Tannehill leads the NFL in total passing yards and yards per attempt when using play-action passes this season. Tannehill is averaging over 10 yards per play-action passing attempt, providing good reason why the Titans are leading the NFL in play-action passing usage at 37.1 percent.
On Tuesday, LaFleur said Smith has done a terrific job “marrying” the run and the pass game, a feature LaFleur credits to the revival of the Packers offense over the last two years.
When runs and passes look the same, big plays are capable when using play-action concepts.
Henry’s presence plays a factor, although large swaths of data suggest the play-action passing game isn’t dependent on the usage or effectiveness of the team’s run game. Still, it’s hard to completely dismiss the effect Henry has on the Titans’ play-action success, given his overall production and his incredible blend of size, power and speed. When linebackers and other second-level defenders are alerted to a run with Henry standing in the backfield, it’s only human nature to protect against the most immediate danger, and a handoff to Henry is certainly dangerous.
But the Titans also have capable weapons around Henry and for Tannehill, especially at wide receiver. Pro Bowler A.J. Brown has 881 yards and 10 touchdowns this season, while Corey Davis has been one of the most efficient receivers in football. Together, they’ve caught 116 passes for 1,826 yards and 15 touchdowns while averaging 15.7 yards per catch and 11.0 yards per target. Quietly, Brown and Davis might be the best receiver duo in the game in 2020.
They’ve been particularly effective and productive catching passes in the middle of the field. Typically, these areas are vacated by defenders in the play-action passing game.
The Packers must be mindful of what the Titans like to do using the run action and prepare accordingly. Henry is a big problem, and the Packers can’t let themselves get run over as they have in the recent past, but the run game will become a secondary problem quickly if Tannehill and the Titans are picking up chunk gains in the passing game while using play-action to manipulate Pettine’s defense.
The Titans are a two-headed monster on offense. If the Packers are too singularly focused on Henry, they’ll lose to the other half of what the Titans do so well. The Packers’ visitors on Sunday night are the highest-scoring team in football, and it’s not all due to Henry.