Packers at 49ers: 5 things to watch and a prediction

What to watch and who will win when the Packers face the 49ers in a pivotal NFC showdown in San Francisco on Sunday night.

The Green Bay Packers. The San Francisco 49ers. Sunday Night Football. Division leaders. Huge playoff implications.

Games don’t get bigger and more iconic in Week 12 than this.

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Sunday night’s pivotal NFC showdown:

1. Tough to tackle

Assuming tight end George Kittle plays, the 49ers will have two of the game’s best at creating yards after the catch available to attack a Packers defense that has struggled to tackle people all season. Kittle is an elite athlete and arguably the toughest tight end in the NFL to tackle. Rookie receiver Deebo Samuel is tough as nails and clever after the catch. He’s produced back-to-back games with over 100 receiving yards because teams can’t tackle him in space. Throw in savvy veteran Emmanuel Sanders and a stable of capable running backs, and the 49ers can really pressure Mike Pettine’s group. The Packers need to have their best tackling performance of the season on Sunday night.

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2. Time to feast

Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith are well-known NFL players, but they both could be household names by the end of Sunday night. The primetime matchup against the 49ers offensive tackles should heavily favor the Packers, especially if left tackle Joe Staley doesn’t play. The two Smiths need to consistently hold the edge against the 49ers’ wide zone run game and also collapse the pocket and put the squeeze on Jimmy Garoppolo in the passing game. More so than anyone else, the Smiths hold the keys to a Packers victory. If they can dominate the proceedings, with timely sacks and impact pressures leading to turnover opportunities, the Packers would have a real chance at a statement win.

3. Aaron to Aaron

How will the Packers crack the code of the 49ers defense? It may take a lot of Aaron Rodgers distributing the football to Aaron Jones. He’s the one difference-making player who can slice through tiny openings and create for himself in the run game, and his elusiveness after the catch could help Rodgers find quick, easy yards against a defense that will often rush four and commit seven to coverage. It’s hard to see how the Packers will consistently line up and throw the ball downfield to receivers and tight ends. Rodgers and Matt LaFleur must stay committed to the run and featuring Jones and the running backs in the passing game. During road wins in Dallas and Kansas City, Jones produced 408 total yards and scored six touchdowns.

4. Another test up front

In Los Angeles in Week 9, the Packers offensive line lacked focus early and got overwhelmed as a group by the Chargers’ talented front, led by defensive end Joey Bosa. They rebounded with a dominant collective effort a week later against the Carolina Panthers. Which offensive line will show up Sunday night? The Packers need another strong effort against one of the NFL’s most disruptive and talented fronts in San Francisco. Although Dee Ford may not play, Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner are fully capable of wrecking the game if the Packers aren’t up to the challenge. The Packers offensive line needs to avoid pre-snap penalties, open up running lanes on early downs and help the offense stay in manageable down and distances. Oh, and keep Aaron Rodgers protected in the high leverage situations on third down and in the red zone. The offense is in the hands of the offensive line on Sunday night.

5. Eye discipline

This game might come down to which team plays with more discipline at the second level. Both teams are going to stress the opposition with pre-snap motion and deception in an attempt to create that one second of indecisiveness or that one step of misdirection. Here’s the caveat: Both defenses know this type of offense, have practice defending it and should be, in theory, well prepared to react correctly to all the pre-snap and post-snap illusions. Sunday night will be an interesting chess match against two playcallers with similar philosophical foundations. Will the Packers be ready to stop one of the NFL’s most creative run offenses?

Prediction: 49ers 28, Packers 20 (7-3)

The Packers are healthy coming out of the bye, but the 49ers look like a bad matchup for Matt LaFleur’s team on both sides of the ball. Kyle Shanahan’s team can run the ball, create yards after the catch and produce explosive plays in the passing game, and they are dominant against the pass, with good coverage players and a stacked pass-rush. The Packers need to win the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and get a big night from Aaron Jones to win. It’s possible, but the guess here is that the 49ers fend off an early surge from the Packers and then control the game late.

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